The World Bank on Wednesday forecast energy prices would fall 11% in 2023 after jumping 60% this year due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but added that a slowdown in global economic growth and restrictions in China due to Covid could lead to further declines , Reuters reports, as quoted by Agerpres.

But, despite this moderation, energy prices will still be 75% higher than the average for the last five years, according to the World Bank.

According to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook report released on Wednesday by the World Bank, the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil will be $92 in 2023, before falling to $80 in 2024, but still well above the average for many years 60 dollars.

According to the forecasts of the international financial organization, oil exports from Russia may decrease to two million barrels per day as a result of the embargo that the European Union is considering on oil and natural gas from Russia, to which will be added restrictions aimed at the insurance and transportation of Russian oil and gas. embargo, which will take effect on December 5.

In addition, the oil price cap analyzed by the Group of Seven Advanced Nations (G7) may also affect oil supplies to Russia, but it also needs the participation of major developing economies to be effective. The World Bank stressed that the price ceiling being considered by the G7 is an untested mechanism.

The World Bank says the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and the devaluation of most developing countries’ currencies have pushed up food and fuel prices and could worsen food insecurity, which already affects 200 million people worldwide.

“The combination of high commodity prices and persistent currency depreciation is leading to higher inflation in many countries,” said Ayhan Kose, who led the World Bank panel of experts that prepared the report. According to Ayhan Kose, developing countries should prepare for “a period of even greater volatility in global financial and commodity markets.”

The report’s authors estimate that currency depreciation has resulted in nearly 60 percent of oil-importing countries facing higher oil prices in local currencies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In addition, almost 90% of these economies witnessed significant increases in the price of wheat in local currencies.

Food price increases averaged more than 20% in South Asia in the first three quarters of this year, while other regions, including Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, recorded food price increases of 12 % to 15%.

Natural gas and coal prices are forecast to fall in 2023 from record highs in 2022, but European natural gas prices could nearly quadruple their five-year average.

The World Bank Group, one of the largest sources of financing and expertise for developing countries, is taking swift and comprehensive action to help developing countries strengthen their response to the challenges of the pandemic.