The Russian Federation is removing ammunition and other materials from Belarusian military depots, an activity that is incompatible with achieving the conditions for a large-scale Russian or Belarusian ground attack on Ukraine from Belarus, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports in its latest assessment.
The Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR) reported on October 11 that on an unspecified date, a train with 492 tons of ammunition from the 43rd missile and ammunition storage arsenal in Gomel (Belarus) arrived at the Kirovsk station in Crimea.
GUR reported that Belarusian officials plan to send 13 more echelons with weapons, equipment, ammunition and other military materials from five different Belarusian bases to the Kamenska (Kamensk-Shakhtynskyi) and Marchevo (Taganrog) railway stations in the Rostov region.
This information is confirmed by images from open sources on social networks. Geolocation images showed at least two Belarusian trains carrying Belarusian T-72 tanks and Ural military trucks in Minsk and Tor-M2 anti-aircraft missile systems in Orsha (Vitebsk region) on Tuesday.
The movement of Belarusian equipment to Russia shows that Russian and Belarusian forces are probably not creating concentration zones in Belarus.
The movement of equipment and supplies from Belarus to Crimea and Rostov Oblast suggests that Russian forces are less confident about the security of Russian land communications that pass through northern and western Luhansk Oblast, given the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive there.
The General Staff of Ukraine confirmed on Tuesday that it monitors Belarus and does not observe signs of the formation of offensive groups in Belarus.
It remains unlikely that Russian and/or Belarusian forces will attack Ukraine from Belarus.
However, Belarus remains an accomplice in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Belarus materially supports Russia’s offensive in Ukraine and provides Russian troops with positions from which they can attack Ukraine with high-precision munitions.
Russian troops struck Kyiv with Shahed-136 drones launched on Monday from the territory of Belarus. In addition, GUR reported that on Monday, Russia transferred 32 Shahed-136 drones to Belarus, and by October 14, Russia will transfer eight more drones to Belarus.
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Source: Hot News RU
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