Atmosphere of celebration of her victory Georgia Meloni in the Italian elections it has deflated and the new prime minister is being asked to come back to reality as she struggles to form a coalition government and Italy is in imminent danger of recession. Party leader Brothers of Italy nearly three weeks after winning the election, she still hadn’t found the right person to lead the financial portfolio. And as he warned on Tuesday IMF in its report on the world economy, the neighboring country is expected to slide into recession in the next few quarters.

At a press conference he gave after the presentation of the report on the global economy, the head of economists of the Fund, Pierre Olivier Gurinhas, stressed that the IMF predicts a sharp recession in Italy next year and, as he explained, “this is largely due to high energy prices and Italy’s dependence on natural gas”. He also added that Italy would be affected by the ECB’s move to a restrictive monetary policy and a reduction in external demand. The fund said the eurozone’s third-largest economy will shrink by 0.2% over the next year and will become only one of two eurozone countries whose GDP will shrink. The second, of course, will be Germany due to its heavy dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

The IMF’s outlook is clearly more pessimistic than that released by the OECD just a day after Meloni’s election victory and outlines the challenges facing the new prime minister of a neighboring country that is still looking for partners to staff its government. Today is the first meeting of Italy’s new parliament, with Mario Draghi still acting as acting prime minister, and Rome has submitted its budget plan to the Commission since Monday. This means that Meloni has a month to revise the budget plan. The problem is that the winner of the election has yet to find a finance minister who can ensure the country’s credibility in relation to financial markets and convince investors that Italy’s colossal debt of 145% of Italian GDP can be sustainable.

The head of the Brotherhood of Italy party has not yet been able to find a suitable person who will take over financial management.

Commenting on Italy’s image, Giovanni Orsina, director of the School of Public Administration at the Luis-Guido Carli University in Rome, noted that “there is a general lack of quality in Italy’s ruling class, and this is most evident among the right, some of whom have no management experience.” He added that at present it is difficult to find a high-level person with the necessary knowledge and skills to reassure the partners in the government coalition and at the same time share the views of the new prime minister. Fabio Panetta, a member of the ECB’s executive committee, could be a candidate for the financial portfolio position, but he is not a candidate and no one else was qualified for the position. According to Italian media reports, the chances that Giancarlo Giorgetti will finally take over as finance minister are increasing.

Adding to the woes of the new prime minister is the decision by Roberto Cingolani, the transitional environment minister, not to remain in office in order not to cooperate with the new government. Meanwhile, Georgia Meloni will lead Italy through the turbulent waters of an energy crisis, double-digit inflation and ever-rising interest rates that will limit her own wiggle room and her ability to support the Italian economy. In this combination of international crises, 10-year Italian government bond yields have more than quadrupled since the start of the year and are now around 4.7%, with the spread widening to nearly 240 basis points. And all this despite the fact that the ECB is expected to raise interest rates again at the October meeting. Sources close to Meloni say Italy’s new prime minister is learning from the tug-of-war between British Prime Minister Liz Truss and markets that have reacted violently to the announcement of a “mini budget” and tax breaks for Britain’s wealthiest citizens. However, according to Markos Protopapas, an analyst at JP Morgan Securities, “there is a lot of uncertainty about the policy that will be implemented.” Italy has already been in recession since late summer, a recession that will intensify in the fourth quarter as the energy crisis continues to squeeze household finances and spending, the analyst in question estimates.