ISTANBUL – ANSWER. With today’s facts that prevail in the economy and in its politics Turkeymost politicians and analysts consider his defeat certain Erdogan in the presidential elections scheduled for June 2023. The reason why they support this view is because of the negative results of the Turkish government in the economy, which leads to the rapid impoverishment of the Turkish people, with the actual annual inflation exceed 100%. There are reports in the opposition press that many officials, ministry employees refuse to follow orders, directives and sign contracts and decisions, as they are afraid of persecution “the next day” after the elections if Erdogan is defeated, as a result of which various malfunctions in the state mechanism . CHP Chairman, Kemal Kilicdarogluwith his statements, he threatened state officials in the event of cooperation with the “arbitrariness of the AKP government.”

At the same time, polls show that the ruling alliance AKP-MHP it cannot exceed 40%, and 50.1% is needed to elect the president. opposition bloc with pro-Kurdish HDP party it is 60%, and the analysis shows that it is difficult to quickly change the data in 9 months.

The AKP, despite the difficulties, maintains its share at 33% with an increasing trend, but the “weak link” of the ruling coalition is the Nationalist Action Party (NAP) Devlet Bahceliwhich collects only 6%.

Low percentage of AKP-MHP government alliance while citizens experience real inflation that exceeds 100%.

The party that will determine the outcome of the elections is considered to be the HDP, which, according to public opinion polls, reaches 12%. party chairman, Selahattin Demirtasand hundreds of elected mayors and HDP officials have been imprisoned in recent years on charges of links to the PKK. If the Erdogan government does not change its position on this issue, the HDP is expected to support Erdogan’s opponent, whoever he is.

Polling company Metropoll reports that if CHP chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu is nominated as Erdogan’s opponent, Kilicdaroglu will lead by 6 percentage points with a widening gap trend. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu is already ahead of Erdogan with 9 percentage points and Ankara Mayor Mansour Yavas with 13! However, the opposition parties will have to finalize their candidate, as – pointed out director of “Metropoll” Ozer Senzhar in an interview with “K”“The right candidate is an important factor in the outcome of an election.”

In the neighboring country, many are wondering if there could be a transfer of power in the event of the defeat of Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey since 2002. Turkish Nobel Laureate Orhan Pamuk in an interview with the T24 website, he noted that “everyone asks a question and says: “Okay, there will be elections.” “Father’s” president will leave power and leave? Will the rulers of the AKP give up the keys and say: “Now we are leaving, we are taking power”? Some other opposition analysts and media outlets argue that Erdogan may not want an election for fear of being prosecuted for scandals involving himself and his family. That is why they do not exclude the possibility of postponing the elections, although Erdogan never spoke about such a possibility.