Vladimir Putin’s speech is a response to the Ukrainian counteroffensive, but the Kremlin leader chose a partial mobilization rather than a general one, fearing the transformation of the war in Ukraine into a civil one, according to analyst and historian Armand Gauchu.

“Putin was afraid to announce a general mobilization precisely in order not to put weapons in the hands of the population, which he absolutely does not trust. These people can oppose Putin himself, and the war with Ukraine can turn into a civil war. Therefore, he agreed to announce a partial mobilization,” he said in an interview for Contributors.ro.

This is President Putin’s first televised speech since the morning of February 24, when he announced the start of military aggression against Ukraine. This is an important point, explain the context. Why now? Why all this spectacle, when tens of millions of people are glued to televisions for hours, waiting for Putin’s speech?

There were also television appearances after February 24. Some are important, some less so. Why is this speech important? You ask me in what context this is happening. That’s right, context is very important. Why now?

With this speech, Putin responds to the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which began on August 29 in Kherson and continued on September 5 with even greater success in the Kharkiv region. The most important victory, without a doubt, is the virtually uncontested capture of Izyum, the key logistics center for the supply of the Russian military in Donbas.

At the same time, Putin is also responding to interlocutors from Samarkand, the summit where he was bombarded not only by Erdogan, but also by almost all the heads of state he met with, with requests to end the war in Ukraine. The way Putin was treated in Samarkand, the fact that he was left waiting in front of the cameras for each of his colleagues he met with, made him better understand the precarious situation in which he personally, as well as Russia, find themselves in this situation. moment and react.

Speeches by Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were scheduled to take place on Tuesday evening at 8:00 p.m. Russian TV channels were waiting with commentators who were on duty in the studios, broadcasting performances. At 10:00 p.m., two Kremlin aides, Markov and Simonyan, announced on social media that the speech would be broadcast on Wednesday morning at 8:00 a.m. It finally aired, but from 9:00 and basically nothing, but absolutely nothing unexpected.

The fact that the broadcast of the recording of the speech was delayed confirms the behind-the-scenes squabbles in the Kremlin, on the part of Putin’s entourage, and that the president is aware of the seriousness of the situation. That does not force him to abandon some propaganda topics.

What did he say in this speech?

In the reverse order, the third place will be a patriotic theme. He referred to historical Russia, hence the obsession with history and borders. That the Russians will defend their sovereignty and territorial integration in the face of the onslaught of the West, which wants to destroy Russia. The novelty would be that Putin is increasingly pushing the narrative – “The Motherland is in danger”, the entire Russian people must take up arms to protect it. So Putin draws inspiration from Stalin’s speeches. Which would not be news. With thousands of Russian soldiers reporting to be discharged from the army and seeing no reason to continue the war against Ukraine, Putin’s attempt to paint Russia as threatening is an attempt to mobilize the population for war.

I am simply recalling the theme of Russian propaganda, namely that Russia is not at war with Ukraine, but with the West, which wants to destroy Russia. This is an old topic, I will not develop it here.

The second important topic would be that Russia should support the wishes of those in Ukraine who want to decide their future in the announced referendums. Putin uses a strange term, our fellow citizens. That is, residents of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donbas are already considered Russian citizens. Maybe it’s just an escape. I just listened to the speech, maybe I should take a closer look at the transcript until I can go to the Russian president’s website.

And, first of all, the most important thing is this announcement – at the request of the Ministry of Defense, he repeats it at least twice in his speech – partial mobilization. So, it is not wanted, but Shoigu.

What does partial mobilization mean? And how can you mobilize when Russia is not fighting, but only conducting a special military operation?

A difficult question, I did not answer. Putin must answer you. There is a paradox here, as you well noted. Formally, Russia did not declare war, but declared mobilization, albeit partial.

The decree on partial mobilization has already been published. Minister Shoigu also released some important details. The Minister of Defense says that 300,000 people will be mobilized, but Russia will have a much larger mobilization potential, totaling 20 million reservists.

The decree is important, I looked it up before speaking. Briefly: today, September 21, partial mobilization begins. Those mobilized are given the status of contract servicemen, that is, they will receive the same salary as contract servicemen. Those working in the military-industrial complex may be exempted, and the government will clearly define these categories. They may be exempted from military service due to age, health or if they have been sentenced to imprisonment for certain acts.

Such a mobilization decision was prepared on Tuesday by an amendment to the Criminal Code of the State Duma. How?

After Putin’s return from Samarkand (Uzbekistan), the development of events took on a different dynamic. An adequate response was required by the victorious Ukrainian counteroffensive, which liberated more than 8,000 square kilometers in 5 days, as much as the Russian army managed to occupy in 6 months of war in the Kharkiv region. It should be noted that this counteroffensive could not be stopped at the administrative border of Luhansk region. Thus, after the liberation of Kharkiv region, the liberation of Luhansk region also began, the only region that Russia managed to occupy 100% at the beginning of July.

Since the Russian army cannot cope with the Ukrainian army, the politician intervened. The Duma made changes to the Criminal Code in terms of defining some terms, mobilization, martial law, and wartime. Punishments were introduced for robbery, for those who surrendered to the enemy, for those who left the army.

I said that the Russian military is under enormous pressure, the law allows Russian soldiers to ask for discharge because of their beliefs. There were thousands of such requests in the command of the troops in Izyum, requests that were later published by the Ukrainian press.

Who is mobilized?

In Russia, life is a lottery, not just mobilization. Minister Soyg needs 300,000 people. According to him, they will be used on the front line, where they will be sent after appropriate training.

Why 300 thousand? I think this is about infantry. In peacetime, the Russian army has 280,000 infantry. Most units were destroyed by Ukrainians. A decision was made to completely cancel some units, including the one that occupied Bucha in March. It’s just that 80, even 90% of the personnel of these units were destroyed in the battles. The 300,000 would thus form infantry troops for future offensive attempts.

In the past two weeks, tens of thousands of 18-year-old conscript soldiers, who barely took the oath, were sent to the border zone, especially to the Bolhorod region. Committees of soldiers’ mothers have already started protest actions to save these young people, to keep them as far as possible from the combat zone.

The fact that there are no soldiers in the Russian army was best seen in Donbas, where after several hours of artillery training there is no one to attack, there are simply not enough soldiers, the army is poorly organized.

Putin constantly postponed this decision on mobilization. Why did he sign a decree on partial mobilization and not on general mobilization? What political consequences will this decision have? What about the military? Read the rest of the article on Contributors.ro