sell more natural gas in China this is one of his oldest favorite designs Vladimir Putin and also it would be logical to implement it for Russia in order to diversify the markets to which it directs its exports. Unfortunately for the Russian president, this idea has become more relevant and less feasible since the war that began in Ukraine. His government European Union they can ignore the Russian leader’s repeated threats that Moscow will sell Beijing what the Europeans no longer buy. A corridor of Russian gas trade with China may well materialize over time. However, in the coming years, Moscow will not have the pipelines, ships, or even natural gas to make Putin’s dream a reality.

Partial replacement of European imports by the Chinese market takes a long time.

The pipeline, which is still in the commissioning phase, transports gas to China at an annual rate of about 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) and will be able to supply 38 billion cubic meters of gas at full capacity in a few years. This is comparable to 155 billion cubic meters. m bought by the EU. in 2021 and 210 bcm. m of all exports from Russian pipelines. In February, an agreement was reached between Moscow and Beijing on another gas pipeline, and one day a long-term plan for transporting natural gas from Yamal may be agreed upon. But it can take up to 15 years from conception to completion of a new pipeline project. China also receives some of Russia’s liquefied natural gas from its eastern fields. However, this is one area where Western sanctions have hit hard. To increase supplies, Russia will need new icebreakers capable of breaking through the ice during the long winter season. The ships in question were built in South Korea, which is participating in the sanctions. Even if Russia could build these ships, they wouldn’t be able to carry much extra gas. Gas from new fields cannot be liquefied without Western technology and major Western oil companies such as Shell or Total Energy, two giants that have now pulled out of the projects they invested in.

Finally, the question is whether China wants to increase its energy dependence on Russia so much, given that it is currently the main importer of Russian oil and natural gas, because it has taken advantage of favorable prices.