The number of drone operations carried out by invading forces appears to be declining and the Russians are having trouble replacing lost UAVs, affecting both artillery target detection and the tactical environment, the British Ministry of Defense said in Assessment on Monday morning.

Ukrainians manage to shoot down Russian Orlan drones almost every day.Photo: Twitter / GeneralStaffUA

According to Oryx, a website that tracks military equipment used in the war, there is visual evidence of 124 drones lost by the Russian military, with the actual loss likely to be higher.

Most of them (94) are different models of Russian Orlan drones.

What British military intelligence says:

  • Ukraine’s offensive operation in the Kherson region continued over the weekend. On Monday, the Odesa Journal reported 27 flights of Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on the west bank of the Dnipro, compared to 50 flights a day during August.
  • On August 21, 2022, the Ukrainian military reported that it had shot down three Orlan-10 Russian tactical UAVs in one day.
  • In recent years, Russian doctrine has given an increasingly prominent role to UAVs, in particular for identifying targets for artillery strikes. UAVs can be vulnerable to both kinetic effects (if shot down directly) and radio-electronic interference.
  • Given its combat losses, Russia is likely to have difficulty maintaining its UAV stockpiles, exacerbated by component shortages due to international sanctions.
  • The limited availability of reconnaissance UAVs is likely to impair commanders’ tactical awareness and further complicate Russian operations.

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