With two years to go before the presidential election, Romania’s main parties are facing a leadership crisis as well as an identity crisis. In a complex geopolitical context and on the verge of a social crisis, the emergence and aggressive national-populist promotion of George Simion may be a surprise in the 2024 presidential elections.

In a context where PSD and PNL are facing a leadership crisis and USR is being dismantled by the followers of Dacian Cholos, George Simion continues his aggressive campaign of political promotion.

Four days after the wedding, in which he tried to establish himself as a nationalist leader and defender of Romanian values ​​and traditions, George Simion practically launched his presidential campaign. And just like that, he focused on the Romanians again.

The leader of the Ukrainian SSR follows the same line of promoting his presidential campaign and attracting people with this operation. It is important for him that his candidacy for the presidency be confirmed by “those who are part of the people.”

• “This is primarily a vector of communication and promotion. This is new propaganda that gives the impression that it supports the real advancement of ordinary people. This is a populist line directed against the elites.
• Simion does not want to be a representative of the elite, although he has become one since entering the parliament. He wants to remain popular, a representative of the people.
• We will hold a series of such events to support public attention, maybe we will make it a program,” political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu explained to HotNews.ro.

George Simeon’s strategy is to strengthen his parliamentary representation as well as the position of his party, as the current electoral system will not benefit him in the 2024 elections.

• “The most difficult confrontation in 2024 will be local, where the electoral system gives preference to parties that have a mayor. Now, Simeon’s party has disintegrated due to alleged ties to Russia.
• Romanians are very sensitive about this topic and it could affect Simion. That’s why they try all these strategies to get out of this foundation,” says Cristian Pirvulescu.

With George Simion at the fore and after forming a ruling coalition, PSD and PNL are facing a real crisis of political identity and some less than charismatic leaders. In addition, the leaders of the Coalition will have to overcome the economic and social crisis that has been announced in the coming months.

• “The parties lack a clear direction. Neither PSD, nor PNL, nor UDMR have a clear orientation. In terms of orientation, they are very ambiguous, they remain so in the pro-European, pro-NATO geopolitical space, but according to the assumed values, they do not exist.
• Look at the Justice Acts and the Education Act, and we see very clearly the ambiguity of these parties and their lack of ideological focus. These are typical post-communist parties that only have a relatively different clientele,” states political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu.

Cholaku is building a path to the presidency / Happy scenario for PSD: Cholaku-Simion in the second round

The Social Democrats are checking the options for winning the presidential elections in the party laboratories. There is no official name. PSD President Marcel Cholaku publicly announced that the PSD President will be elected by organizations and may even be outside the party, a technocrat.

Unofficially, the Social Democrats regularly conduct sociological surveys and test the trust of the electorate. Alexandru Rafila is an option analyzed and verified in surveys of the PSD leadership.

In addition, the intentions of Gabriela Firea to run for mayor of the capital are well known in the PSD, and if she wins, the presidency of Romania could be an option that could shake the seat of the PSD president, Marche Colac.

However, unofficially, there is talk in the party that Marcel Cholaku is building his way to Kotrochen. More precisely, the inauguration of the Prime Minister and how he will manage the Government will be the decisive test of whether it is worth taking the presidential step or not.

• “Having become the prime minister and under certain favorable conditions, Marcel Cholaku can become a serious candidate for the presidency. The context is of great importance, and the crisis of the system parties may lead Simeon to the second round of the presidential elections.
• PSD and Marcel Cholaku would obviously be most interested in this situation. The PSD president would like certainty in the elections, and then a direct confrontation with Simion would win his case,” explains Pirvulescu.

Another candidacy that could be supported by the PSD is the candidacy of the independent Mircea Joane, who will complete his mandate as Deputy Secretary General of NATO in the fall of 2023. This has been discussed within the party, but so far without a clear conclusion.

PNL is sitting on a powder keg / Chuke may miss the train for the presidential race

In PNL, the situation is even more complicated. Entering the government together with the PSD, the liberals lost the trust of their own electorate, but at the same time became invisible at the public level. Although the PNL leads the government, the Social Democrats have a better communication strategy and Nicolae Chuke fails to make political gains.

A significant part of the PNL leaders is extremely dissatisfied with the activities of Nikolay Chuke and the non-combative attitude of the prime minister. Sources from the NLP explained to HotNews.ro that the chances of Nicolae Chuke to become the presidential candidate of the NLP are significantly decreasing.

• “Nikolaj Chuke’s original plan was to move from the position of President of the Senate to the interim presidency, when Klaus Iohannis would be offered to take over the leadership of NATO in 2023.
• Sorin Kimpeanu is currently lobbying within the party for the post of Senate President, and Kotrochen seems to be supporting him. Everything can change to Chuke’s detriment if he does not confirm before the roundabout with the PSD,” the cited sources explained.

Prime Minister Nicolae Chuke, who is also the president of the party, has failed to acquire “dexterity” as a politician. He has a speech impediment that may affect him.

• “If there is a runoff, he will have no more resources and I wonder if he will remain a presidential candidate or not.
• To support it or not is up to the parties. An internal struggle for candidates will begin, which will further undermine the PNL, which has already been seriously damaged by the struggle between Orbán and I believe that next year, Iohannis will no longer have enough power over the party to intervene,” – say the sources of HotNews.ro. .

In such a scenario, liberals are also considering the nomination of a surprise candidate similar to 2014, when Klaus Iohannis was launched into the presidential race. Inside the NLP, they are talking about the candidacy of the mayor of Cluj, Emil Bok, who could form a tandem with Lucian Bode from the position of president of the NLP. “However, there is a problem with this candidacy, namely: how suitable Emil Bock is for the second round of the presidential elections,” HotNews.ro sources say.

Drula, profile of the candidate for the presidency of the USSR

With the beginning of the parliamentary session, the opposition in the form of the USR and some deputies of Ludovic Orban is trying to break ranks. The USR is still facing defections, and Dacian Ciolos has managed to destroy what could have been a concentrated opposition.

• Cristian Pirvulescu: “USR has not officially announced a presidential candidate, but maybe Drula does not have the image of the best president of the party, but he is definitely a presidential candidate. I don’t see anyone from the current SDR running for president in 2024. It is important for the UDR to have a candidate who is accepted by the electorate, who will vote and will vote in all types of elections in 2024.”

The political situation will develop in the coming months, after a new economic and social crisis. Depending on how they handle the situation, the parties will rethink their calculations and strategy for the 2024 elections.

According to Christian Pirvulescu, of all the names of possible candidates for the presidential elections, only two competitors stand out:

• “Politics is the word from the candidates we have talked about so far, the best fit for the presidential election is Mircea Joane, and after that, the one who can have a coherent speech is Gabriela Firea. The rest they have yet to learn”