OUR war in Ukraine “added fuel to the fire” of food prices, which have already soared to Russian invasion and are likely to grow a further 8.5% in total through 2027. The UN issued this pessimistic warning on Tuesday through Arif Hussain, head of the UN World Food Programme, who stressed that the risk food crisis “is not due to shortages or shortages of food, but to the fact that food prices are becoming unaffordable for a large part of the world’s population.” However, he warned that the crisis could turn into a food shortage crisis if the fertilizer shortage is not addressed.

Ukraine

In an interview with the American news network CNBC, a UN official cited data from an international organization, according to which world food prices in July were 13% higher compared to the same period last year. He stressed that food prices continue to rise, since Ukraine is one of the most important countries in the world in terms of grain, fertilizer and sunflower oil exports. However, fertilizer prices are rising along with food prices, fueling a new upward trend in food prices passed on to consumers. The reason is mainly the lack of Russian exports on the world market, since Russia accounts for about 14% of world fertilizer exports. Eventually, the shortage of fertilizers led to a reduction in agricultural production in many regions of the world.

In addition to the war in Ukraine, food production is deteriorating due to lack of fertilizers and climate change.

Equally troubling are the remarks of Marie Pangestou, Director General of the World Bank’s Development Policy and Cooperation Unit. Speaking to the same network, Ms. Pangestu stressed that the spike in food and fertilizer prices, coupled with skyrocketing energy prices and a heart attack in the global supply chain, is undermining the World Bank’s ability to respond to growing food financing needs. as food production is expected to rise significantly over the next two years. He again ended with the same warning that rising uncertainty is likely to keep food prices at very high levels beyond 2024. Extremely alarming, after all, are the UN calculations, according to which the number of people in a state of emergency, from a food point of view, that is, on the verge of starvation, has increased significantly from 135 million people in 2019 to 345 million today.

Extreme weather

Meanwhile, an additional aggravating factor in the global food market are extreme weather conditions, heat and drought, as well as floods that hit China in the summer. China is the world’s largest grain producer, but these extreme weather conditions have hurt its agricultural production in recent months. A few days ago, the world’s second-largest economy declared a drought emergency for the first time in the country as its central and southern provinces suffered a week of abnormally high temperatures that exceeded 40 degrees Celsius in several cities. Extreme temperatures hindered production and in many cases created problems for livestock keepers.

As Bruno Carrasco, Director General of the Sustainable Development and Climate Change Unit of the Asian Development Bank, noted, “rice production is particularly vulnerable to temperature changes.” He explained that 60% of food production in the wider Asia-Pacific region depends on rain irrigation.