After the occupation Russia territories in southern Ukraine, a failed attempt to seize Kyiv, and the postponement of the battlefield in eastern Ukraine for many weeks, the war is entering “its third chapter,” the analysis says tNew York Times. Now, the report says, a stalemate reigns on the battlefield, with fighting simmering amid worrisome uncertainty about if – and when – Ukraine launches a counterattack to try to break the stalemate.

The timing of such a move was a key strategic choice for Kyiv. Both opposing sides are preparing for a protracted war. However, according to the New York Times, Ukraine has more incentive to avoid it with potentially dangerous maneuvers this fall. That is, before the rainy season turns the countryside into impenetrable swamps, or energy shortages and rising prices could undermine European support.

The risk of Ukrainians

“Counterattack is risky”, estimates Michael Kofman, head of Russian research at the research center in Virginia in an American newspaper. “If this fails, it could hurt the country’s external support,” he explains. “On the other hand, Kyiv probably sees this as a window of opportunitybehind which lies the uncertainty of a protracted war against the Russian army, which managed to regroup,” he adds.

From the point of view of Ukrainians, the static trench warfare that prevailed cannot continue indefinitely. If Russia relinquishes control of most of the southern coast, it will hurt its economy, which has already suffered from the war and is supported by Western aid.

It would also give Moscow the opportunity to consolidate control over the territories it has seized by covering the media and the school curriculum with its propaganda, arresting or expelling opponents, and potentially declaring a Russian landmass through “rigged” referendums, the publication says.

Putin is waiting for a permanent war

For his part, the NYT continues, Putin is facing significant political pressure to make tangible gains on the battlefield — especially since Ukraine’s invasion of Crimea and the bombing that killed Dugin’s daughter. These attacks have awakened the Russian “hawks”, eager for revenge.

However, many signs indicate that Putin will ignore these calls and opt for an offensive strategy aimed at weakening Ukrainian forces. The latest data came on Thursday, when the Kremlin issued an order to increase its personnel by 137,000 to 1.15 million.

Analysts have calculated that this decree “hides” the strategy that Putin is preparing for a long and stubborn war, but not necessarily for a large-scale plan that would signal a major escalation and perhaps also provoke a reaction within Russia.

“Expectations that this will be over by Christmas or next spring” are misplaced, said Ruslan Pukov, a defense analyst at a Russian think tank. “I think it will last a long time,” he adds.

After all, Ukraine this week received a promise from the United States to provide a new $3 billion aid package. Biden administration officials said the aid sent a signal to Putin that the US is ready to be involved in the process for the long haul, and to Ukraine that America will continue to push for NATO unity while supporting Kyiv indefinitely.

In conclusion, reports the NYT. that if the Russian side has every reason to expect a protracted conflict, then for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky everything looks the other way around. Upcoming referendums on the establishment of Russian power in the occupied territories may begin as early as this month, which will increase pressure on the Ukrainian leadership.

In addition, some analysts say there is a “distance” between Ukrainian politicians who are aiming for a major victory and military leaders who want to make sure they have enough troops and combat power before launching a major counteroffensive.