Vladimir Putin’s decree on Thursday to increase the size of the Russian military starting in January 2023 is unlikely to bring significant combat power anytime soon and indicates that Putin is unlikely to order mass mobilization anytime soon, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its the last assessment.

By decree from January 1, 2023, the nominal strength of the Armed Forces of Russia will increase by 137,000 people from 1,013,628 to 1,150,628 people.

The Russian military is likely trying to recoup losses from its invasion of Ukraine and build forces to support its operation in Ukraine.

The announcement of a relatively modest (but still likely unachievable) target for increasing the total number of troops clearly indicates that Putin remains determined to avoid full mobilization.

It is unlikely that the Kremlin will build up enough forces to reach the final strength of more than 1,150,000 troops as required by the decree.

Historically, the Russian army has not reached its ultimate strength goals.

“Main obstacles”

For example, in 2022, before a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it had only about 850,000 troops on active duty, well below its nominal target of over one million.

Russia is likely to face serious obstacles in adding large numbers of new soldiers quickly.

In addition to the problems faced by Russian recruiters, Russian recruiters likely declined after February 24, when the Kremlin deployed training elements to fight in Ukraine, and they suffered losses.

Russia may use the fall recruitment cycle in October 2022, which is expected to attract around 130,000 recruits, to replenish Russian casualties, which are reported to be in the tens of thousands killed and seriously wounded.

In addition, the Kremlin could use the new nominal forces specified in the decree to officially incorporate into the Russian army the forces of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk republics and/or new Russian volunteer units that are not officially part of the Russian army.

The actual increase in Russian combat power in any such case would be very small.

(article photo © Kuzma | Dreamstime.com)