High prices do not affect oil consumption in the short term. But those that remain consistently high, as is the case today, can drive demand growth on a permanent basis. According to the US Energy Information Administration, nearly two-thirds of this commodity used in the United States ends up in the transportation system. Americans love gas-guzzling cars. In 2021, the top three best-selling cars in the country are the Ford F-150, Ram, and Chevrolet Silverado—all rural. And on average, those who are on the road are about 12 years old, so they require a lot of fuel.

According to the study, a 10% increase in fuel costs reduces road traffic by 3% and gasoline demand by 6% over five years in many countries.

Once consumers turn their backs on oil, they won’t remember it later.

Now, when the fullness of time comes and the price reverses, after a long stay at high levels, demand does not fully recover. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the consumption of “black gold” grew by almost 4 percent annually until the 1970s. Between 1972 and 1980, the inflation-adjusted price of oil more than quadrupled. Subsequently, the increase in gasoline prices slowed to almost 1% year on year. High prices caused a complete stagnation of demand after about 30 years. In 2008, the price exceeded $100 per barrel and, except for a period during the financial crisis, remained steadily at a very high level until 2015. And the demand for gasoline stabilized in 2007, but today it should be noted that the economy is 2/3 more.

Although gasoline is more than 20% below record levels, it may remain high because supply does not increase easily. US oil companies are choosing to buy back shares rather than expand production, while Saudi Arabia may not be able to increase supplies either. Since the demand for gasoline in the country is stagnating, the next step will be to reduce it. Technological progress and tightening of environmental laws affect demand. The Ford F-150 now travels 22 miles per gallon, twice as much as it did in 1970. More than 7% of people work remotely, according to official figures. Sales of electric vehicles reached record levels in the second quarter, according to Cox Automotive, and those who bought them will keep them for a long time to come. Once people turn their backs on oil, they won’t come back.