Six months after her invasion Russia in UkraineThe inflationary shock continues to cause “headaches” for markets, government officials and households as the price of natural gas hit a new all-time high yesterday.

The paradox is that in one area there has been some relief. prices for cereals, cereals and oils returned to pre-war levels.

Russia and Ukraine are agricultural superpowers – until recently they were the first and fifth wheat exporting powers, respectively, and the two largest exporters. sunflower oil in the world. Fearing a disruption in exports due to the war, he was the next to register a rise in the price of food in February and March.

In the end, it seems that the worst has been avoided. Last week, Chicago wheat futures for December delivery fell to $7.70 per bushel. This price is at the level of February, much lower $12.79 Where was he three months ago.

It’s price corn it also returned to pre-war levels. In the same time Palm oil it has fallen even below the price it was before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

grain deal

This price drop is partly due to grain agreement which now allows ships to safely depart from Odessa.

Mostly, of course, it has to do with strength. export of Russian grain. According to the US Department of Agriculture, Russia has no problems with exports. On the contrary, in 2022-2023 it will reach a record number 38 million tons in grain exports almost 2 million tons more than last year.

OUR this year’s harvest brought more than expectedthanks to good weather conditions, with strong demand from traditional importers in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

In fact, some go so far as to say that the initial concerns about possible shortages were… exaggerated. In the markets, these forecasts have translated into extremely high world prices and speculation.

However, the fall in prices will not immediately be felt by consumers. This is because prices have returned to pre-war levels in dollars and not in other currencies.

The dollar has risen this year fed sharply increased interest rates. This has an impact on poorer countries: h Turkish pound fell 25% against the dollar this year and Egyptian pound by 18%. These two countries are among the top three importers of wheat in the world.

In addition, food prices were in any case historically high and before the war, while no one knows when they will rise again.

Significant parts of the world have been affected by drought, which in turn affects crops.

In the same time fertilizer they remain very expensive. For example, the price of carbamide used in nitrate fertilizers is $680 per ton, while last year it cost $400.

This increase is due to the “ascent” of the price of natural gas, which is part of many fertilizers.

As European fuel prices break record after record, there are likely to be many more nasty surprises in the future.

According to The Economist