Feasibility study for each of the support measures that fell on the table as a candidate to join the September package is carried out by the financial staffas the explosive price of natural gas tightens the tax margin more and more. The number 1 priority remains the subsidy for electricity.

However, the fiscal space that this subsidy will require both this year and next year is literally undetermined. Fatefully, the final contents of the package are also left up in the air.

The good news on the tax revenue front, as well as on the tourism front – in fact, we “caught” the corresponding revenues of 2019 in six months – allow finance staff to be optimistic that there will be additional tax space by the end of the year. will be created, which will be between 1.5 and 2 billion euros. However, it would seem that a very large amount can be significantly “eaten away” if the price of natural gas reaches the current or even higher level. The financial staff knows that the budget provided for the allocation of “net” fiscal funds (that is, money from the state budget) of the order of 800-850 million euros to subsidize electricity throughout the second half of this year, and now it appears that this money can come in less than for three months.

So this is the first question to be answered a few days before International Exhibition in Thessaloniki: what financial space can be left after receiving an electricity subsidy. For 2022, the government has two main priorities: to meet the massively increased heating needs and to support the poorest households, who will be hit hardest by the very large rise in prices for food and basic necessities. There scenarios are very specific:

2. Strengthening households to meet heating needs it’s also a very big chapter this year. In principle, this requires subsidizing the price of natural gas, as about 600,000 households heated by natural gas will receive exorbitant bills from October to November if gas prices remain at 240-250 euros per megawatt-hour. Natural gas subsidies (either directly from the state budget or indirectly from DEPA) are expected to be included in the support package and the size of the subsidy is expected to be determined. From there, the payment of an increased heating allowance is at the top of the list of priorities. This is a measure with controlled fiscal costs, since due to revenue criteria the perimeter can be determined with sufficient accuracy. The final amounts will depend on the price and oil. With today’s data, fuel oil is moving towards the closing levels of last year’s winter season, that is, to 1.5-1.6 euros per liter.

For motor fuelsfuel pass option 3 is open but not given because with the de-escalation of prices and the fall of the national average price of unleaded petrol to 2 euros, motor fuel subsidies are no more a priority than heating or food .

On the other hand, extension of the diesel fuel subsidy at the source has other characteristics. Diesel is a commercial fuel and the financial staff wants to keep the transportation costs of products that are sold at retail in every possible way. Also with diesel fuel, financial staff faces the following difficulty: the removal of the subsidy would increase the retail price by 15 cents.

Measures for 2023

Calculating the cost of measures and priorities for 2023 also requires a feasibility study, since the annual budget is already loaded with a number of … preconditions. Again, the “protagonist” is electricity. Since we have to show a primary surplus in 2023, the available fiscal space will be very limited. Even if a fund of more than 1.5 billion euros is registered to subsidize electricity in the first half of the year, the margin will be suffocating. Also, preconditions do not end on a stream. An increase in pensions is a given that they will have to be given, and due to the jump in inflation and the upcoming outstripping growth, the fund that will have to be given will grow quite a bit.

Preferential rates of insurance premiums should also be extended, and 450 million euros should be allocated to abolish the solidarity contribution for civil servants and pensioners. Thus, it is doubtful that the government will be able to reserve budgetary space from now on for other measures that are now being talked about, such as lowering sham fees. And that’s because there needs to be “flexibility” in the 2023 budget, as the unexpected with today’s data will be the most likely.