President Vladimir Putin and his Kremlin advisers are faced with a dilemma: to continue the referendums on the annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories or to wait with the seizure of new territories, risking the Russians to understand that “something is wrong”, writes Meduza.

Journalists at the investigative website, which Russian authorities blocked on March 4 at the same time as Russian access to the BBC and Deutsche Welle were restricted, cited two sources close to the Kremlin who said Russian officials were unsure how to proceed with the annexation of the so-called “people’s republics.” Donetsk and Luhansk and occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

​According to the calculations of Russian investigative journalists, now Moscow’s armed forces control 60.25% of the territory of the Donetsk region, and recently this figure has not increased significantly (it was 59.7% a month ago).

Despite this, Meduza sources state that the Kremlin has not yet abandoned the idea of ​​holding referendums in the fall on the annexation of the self-proclaimed DPR and RPL, as well as other territories belonging to Ukraine.

Earlier, the Kremlin believed that it could hold all referendums on September 11, when Russia is due to hold elections for regional legislatures and change several governors. However, according to the initial plan, Russian troops were to occupy the entire territory of Donetsk region by this date.

It will be recalled that on February 22, shortly after the recognition of the independence of the two separatist entities in the east of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized their de facto sovereignty over the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and not only over the areas occupied by the separatists. they were controlled by pro-Russians.

Director of the FSB Oleksandr Bortnikov, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmytro Medvedev, Head of the DPR Denys Pushylin and Minister of Internal Affairs of Russia Volodymyr Kolokoltsev (PHOTO: Sputnik / Profimedia Images)

Some of Putin’s advisers want the quick annexation of Ukrainian territories

Now, some of Vladimir Putin’s advisers are proposing to hold a referendum on September 11, but to annex only 60 percent of the territory of the Donetsk region to Russia. Under such a scenario, if Russian troops later succeed in occupying the rest of the region, it will be “joined to Russia by default.”

“Meduza” sources noted that in May-June, the Russian authorities were confident that by September the Donetsk region would be under their control “for a while” and that the annexation referendum could be held “quietly”, but the Kremlin once again misjudged the situation on the front .

However, the authorities in Moscow are very reluctant to postpone the referendums again, bearing in mind that they were originally planned to be held in the spring, after the rapid occupation of Kyiv and most of Ukraine.

In addition, the occupying power established by Russia has already begun to establish election commissions and signed documents on the preparation of polling stations, including in the occupied territories of Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia.

The Kremlin fears that the Russians will understand that everything is not going according to plan

But Vladimir Putin’s advisers are already developing an alternative scenario: holding referendums in winter. The Kremlin hopes that by December-January Russian troops will be able to capture the entire Donetsk region and not lose control over the already occupied territories.

According to Meduza interlocutors, the scenario of a winter vote is becoming “more and more probable”. At the same time, the Kremlin understands that another postponement of referendums can confuse those who support the war.

“People will understand that something is wrong, the calculations are not confirmed. Perhaps he will see it as a weakness,” said one of the sources.

Meduza journalists already had at their disposal a poll, which the Kremlin has kept secret since last month, and which shows that the percentage of Russians who want an immediate end to the “special operation” ordered by Putin on February 24 is much higher than the official one. poll.

Meduza sources noted that the Kremlin still does not understand how not to warn the Russians that everything is not going according to official propaganda, if they postpone the referendums again. However, the authorities installed by the Russians in the occupied territories have already begun to gradually prepare for the voting scenario in winter.

The leader of the so-called LPR, Leonid Pasechinyk, and the deputy head of the Kherson occupation government, Kateryna Gubareva, have already stated that the referendums will be held “only after” the capture of the entire Donetsk region, without specifying the exact dates.

Putin and Kremlin spokesman Dmytro Peskov (PHOTO: Kommersant Photo Agency / ddp USA / Profimedia)

Vladimir Putin was not impressed with his propagandists

Sources of Russian journalists also explained that if the referendums are postponed for the winter, Kremlin propagandists will most likely have to come up with “new slogans and elements of ideology” for their organization.

Earlier, Meduza wrote that the internal political bloc of the Presidential Administration developed the concept of “Novorossiya” for the referendum, which should convince the residents of the occupied territories that after joining Russia, the country will become “stronger and richer” and “acquire a new quality.”

However, it seems that such an ideological concept did not appeal to Vladimir Putin and the members of the Russian Security Council, who believe that the country is returning to its rights and “is not getting anything new.”

As a result, the occupation authorities of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions are now promoting referendums under the slogans “Together with Russia” and “One People”, concepts more palatable to the Kremlin leader.

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