This year at noon this year’s August thriller about the locations where the fourth Turkish Oil Company (TRAO) floating drilling rig will go for exploration drilling. “Abdul Hamid Khan”. Once again, the opening of the investigation will be announced in the presence of the President. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, from the port of Tasutsu in southern Turkey, a few nautical miles from the occupied Cypriot peninsula of Karpasia. For reasons of maritime safety, the relevant directive for seafarers (NAVTEX) must be released at least 48 hours before the start of the investigation, but the fact that it was delayed until late yesterday night indicates the celebratory dimension that the Turkish leadership wishes to give to the release of “Abdul Hamid Khan”. Indicates the atmosphere cultivated Anchor See also Mr. Erdogan’s statement yesterday. “Tomorrow we will say goodbye from the port of Tasutsu in Mersin to our new, fourth drilling rig called Abdul Hamit Khan. Until today, in areas of our maritime jurisdiction, we have not allowed any planning or action without us, and will not allow,” Mr. Erdogan said.

On the same wave, he moved a little earlier, speaking at the annual meeting of Turkish ambassadors, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlut Cavusoglunoting that his country was being protected in Eastern Mediterranean sovereign rights. In fact, he stated that “the duo of Greece and the Greek Cypriots tried to send nine ships to our continental shelf. We have prevented this by the measures we have taken both at the front and at the table. And tomorrow, the ship “Abdul Hamid Khan” will go to her first combat operations in the Mediterranean.”

Athens is ready for any scenario, although the prevailing opinion is that they will move in the area around Cyprus – watch the armed forces.

Even yesterday in Athens there were no significant deviations in the initial evaluation of the drilling rig in any of the areas around Cyprus. The most likely scenario remains the start of drilling in areas around the peninsula of the occupied Karpasia, either to the north or south of it, drilled under 2D and 3D seismic conditions. In Nicosia and Athens plot script 6 Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), half of which, according to Ankara, lies on the Turkish continental shelf, remains highly probable. As well as the possible combination of Abdul Hamit Khan’s activities in areas 5 and 6 and possibly to the west, on the borders of the potential Greek continental shelf and in areas near the points that they produced in 2018.Barbarian“and in 2020”Oroch Reis“. In any case, there is caution on the part of the Armed Forces (AF) if Turkey chooses such a course.

At the moment, the possibility of sending Abdul Hamid Khan west of the 28th meridian, that is, within the maritime areas between Crete and southwestern Rhodes, delimited between Athens and Cairo since the summer of 2020, is considered limited. In the long term, if Turkey decides to escalate, seismic surveys in the area will first be carried out by a Barbaros-class vessel and then a floating drilling rig will be sent. Each of these options is, of course, a vertical escalation option from Turkey.

In the diplomatic field Athena has received assurances from various quarters, especially from the United States, which is particularly active in the background, that Ankara does not seem to want to sever relations with Greece, at least for now.

Turkey’s persistence in revisionism

Wariness in Athens about a spillover to the Eastern Mediterranean, even if the most painless scenario is confirmed, is accompanied by a parallel concern about Ankara’s alleged diplomatic escalation. First, in the message field, although more sporadic at this stage, there are. It is precisely this message that is perceived yesterday’s flight of a Turkish UAV over the islet of Kandelios, a clear reminder of the theories about “gray zones” in the Aegean sea. Greek diplomatic authorities are also waiting with interest for another letter from Ankara to the UN, which, as Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu at least hinted at, would take the Turkish disputes one step further.

However, yesterday, speaking at a meeting of Turkish ambassadors, Mr. Cavusoglu widely mentioned that Ankara is questioning the sovereignty of Greece, while demilitarization is an important issue. “In the Aegean, we want interrelated issues to be dealt with holistically and dealt with comprehensively, permanently and in accordance with international law. However, Greece cannot muster the will to solve problems. Whoever has a habit does not give it up,” Mr. Tsavusoglu said. And he added: “We spoke and explained to our interlocutors, especially at the UN, that the islands that are off our coasts and have a demilitarized status in accordance with international treaties are now militarized. We will continue to address this issue, which is critical to the security of our country.”

In a speech that also has the character of reversing or confirming trends in Turkish foreign policy, Mr. Cavusoglu repeated Ankara’s constant argument about “blackmailing” the West by Athens, or “twin” as it is pejoratively called, Greece and the Republic of Turkey. Cyprus. “It is not right that the EU be held hostage and surrender to the fruitless interests of some of its members in the light of solidarity, and this is being done against Turkey, which is a candidate for EU membership. and a full member of NATO,” said Mr. Tsavusoglu. The Foreign Minister noted that relations with the EU-Turkey are so strategic that they cannot be reduced to “the narrow-minded positions of one or two EU members.” He added that ” “security is like breathing. You realize its value when you miss it. That’s why the security of Europe needs Turkey.”