The strange and conflicting signals that the US economy is sending out today help us see what happened in Williston, North Dakota, in 2010. At that time, the area was experiencing an oil boom. Drillers drilled hundreds of oil wells, filled wagons with oil, because the pipeline had not yet been built. Almost anyone who wanted a job could find one, even teenagers who dropped out of school to work in the oil fields. Wages skyrocketed. Fast food restaurants gave bonuses to anyone who applied for a job, and the state treasury was full of revenue. However, there was uncertainty. Restaurants could not hire enough staff. Housing was inadequate and expensive, and local infrastructure was unable to cope with the sudden increase in demand. Almost everything has skyrocketed in price. “It was chaos,” said David Flynn, an economist at the University of North Dakota who lived through the boom and studied it. “The economy was fine, as were government revenues, but there were no workers and businesses were in trouble. This is very similar to the stories we’ve been hearing over the past two years in the US,” he added.

Economists and politicians have been arguing for weeks about whether the United States is in a recession. If so, the recession is unlike any of the previous ones. Employers created more than half a million jobs in July, and the unemployment rate is at its lowest level in 50 years. Usually during a recession, businesses are reluctant to hire and consumers are reluctant to spend. Now businesses want to hire but can’t find workers, and consumers want to spend money but can’t find a car to buy or flights to book. In other words, recessions are too much supply and too little demand. The US economy is facing the opposite. Just like in North Dakota in 2010. The reasons are, of course, different. However, the most obvious consequence is the same: inflation. There is a more subtle consequence concerning uncertainty. No one knows how long the boom will last or what the economy will look like in the next phase.

Companies have been in a state of constant adaptation for two and a half years. In early 2020, and almost overnight, Americans traded restaurant food for homemade bread, and gym memberships for social-distancing bike rides. These changes caused huge upheavals. Some other changes brought about by the pandemic are likely to be more long-term. But it’s hard for businesses to figure out which ones. “I think businesses are right that the current state of the economy really can’t sustain the way it is,” said Adam Ozimek, chief economist at the Economic Innovation Group, a Washington-based research organization.

To most, of course, this does not seem like an explosion. Americans are overwhelmingly dissatisfied with the economy. High inflation is offsetting the benefits of a strong labor market for many workers. Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University, finally notes that the US is not experiencing a real boom. This will entail a virtuous circle in which prosperity breeds investment that breeds more prosperity and makes the economy more productive in the long run.