OUR war in Ukraine it is now entering its third phase, a phase that could determine its final outcome, as Hal Branch noted in his analysis for Bloomberg.

• The first phase was the failed blitzkrieg of Russia, which sent its forces to threaten Kyiv last February-March.
• The second phase, which is ongoing, was Russian operations aimed at occupying his entire region. Donbass in Eastern Ukraine.
• The third phase now includes a Ukrainian counterattack in the south. If Ukraine manages to regain enough territory, it could turn the tide in its favor. If this fails, then Kyiv will face a difficult winter, Bloomberg analyst notes.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reason to believe that Moscow time is on her side. By the end of this year, the West, according to Russian estimates, will reduce the supply of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. At the same time, at some point there will be “fatigue” in terms of increasing the amount of money that Western democracies are funneling into the Ukrainian economy.

Meanwhile, despite the resumption of grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports, problems with grain supplies will not only persist to some extent, but in some cases may intensify. And Europe, for its part, will “shudder” with the onset of winter and the depletion of natural gas reserves, which Putin himself is striving for, who, for this reason, is now reducing natural gas flows to Europe.

Putin’s rate

Now Putin is betting that economic hardship will force the West to back down before Russia plunges into its own economic disaster.

In such a context of developments, according to the Russian side, the assistance that Ukraine receives from the West will decrease, and pressure on Kyiv, on the contrary, will begin to intensify in order to accept a truce.

In that case, Moscow could declare that it has won the war, since it now controls more territory in Ukraine than it did before the February 24 invasion.

The Russians can also use these occupied territories as regrouping bases for future attacks, thereby putting pressure on Kyiv or striking at Odessa.

However, in this context of threatening developments, a Ukrainian counterattack in the south also makes sense.

Benefits of a successful Ukrainian counterattack

Ukraine is already reclaiming territories along the way to Khersonat the same time assembling units in order to intensify hostilities there.

A successful Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south could eliminate the risk of another Russian attack on Odessa. It could also lead to Russian ties to him. Crimeaas well as some Russian military facilities within range of Ukrainian artillery.

In addition to this, of course, there are “psychology” factor. According to military analysts Michael Coffman and Lawrence Friedman, both sides are trying to form a picture of where this war is heading. Ukraine must show its Western patrons that it can win in the end so that they stay on its side.

If Ukraine can pull this off, then time is likely to be on its side. According to a recent study by the Yale School of Management, the Russian economy is headed for the abyss. If the war continues into 2023, Putin will also have to face the exhaustion of the Russian military, and the possibility of large-scale mobilization comes with significant political risk for the Russian leader.

On the other hand, however, the gap for Ukraine is narrowing as we approach the US midterm elections in November, under the apparent threat of more international crises…

According to Bloomberg/Washington Post.