As the third pandemic winter approaches, scientists are warning governments and citizens to prepare for new waves. coronavirus.

In the US alone, up to a million infections a day could be possible this winter, according to Chris Murray, head of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, which tracks the course of the pandemic. told Reuters. This is twice as much as today’s daily count.

In the UK and Europe, scientists are predicting a series of new waves of the pandemic as citizens spend more time indoors during the colder months – this time almost everywhere without masks and without social distancing rules.

But while the number of cases may increase in the coming months, the number of deaths and hospitalizations is unlikely to increase as dramatically, scientists predict, thanks to vaccinations and revaccinations, earlier infections, easier options and the availability of highly effective treatments for COVID-19.

“The most at risk are those who have not been exposed to the virus, and there are almost none left,” Murray notes.

These projections raise new questions about when countries will emerge from the COVID-19 emergency and when they will reach the stage where the disease becomes endemic and small outbreaks occur in communities with high vaccination rates, possibly on a seasonal basis.

Many experts predicted that this transition would begin in early 2022, but the emergence of a highly contagious variant of the Omicron coronavirus has debunked their predictions.

“We have to stop thinking that the pandemic is over,” says Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Both he and others see the coronavirus turning into an endemic threat that will continue to cause a large burden of disease. “Someone once told me that the definition of endemic is that life gets a little worse,” notes Kucharski.

The question remains whether some new variant will emerge that will surpass the current Omicron variants in gravity.

If this variant also causes more severe disease and evades immunity more easily, that would be the “worst case scenario,” according to a recent report from the World Health Organization Europe.

“All scenarios (with new options) assume the possibility of a major wave in the future, as severe or more severe than the waves of the 2020/2021 epidemic,” says the report, which is based on the Imperial University London model.

Destructive factors

Many of the experts who spoke to Reuters said COVID-19 predictions have become much more difficult as many people rely on self-tests they take at home, which are not officially recorded by health authorities and therefore do not take into account the level of infection. Purely.

BA.5, a variant of Omicron that is currently causing an increase in morbidity in many areas, is highly contagious, meaning that many patients treated for other conditions may test positive for this variant and be counted among those considered severe cases, even if COVID-19 is not the cause of their poor health.

The scientists explain that other unknown factors complicating predictions include whether the combination of vaccination and exposure to the coronavirus — called hybrid immunity — provides more protection in people, and how effective booster vaccination campaigns might be.

“Anyone who says they can predict the future of this pandemic is either overconfident or lying,” says David Dowdy, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

The flu is back

Experts are also keeping a close eye on developments in Australia, where a resurgence of influenza, coupled with COVID-19, is straining the hospital system.

They even say that Western countries may experience the same after several periods of almost no flu.

“If it happens there, it can happen here too. Let’s get ready for a normal flu season,” says John Macaulay, director of the World Flu Center at the Francis Crick Institute in London.

The WHO said every country still needs to approach the new waves with all the tools in the pandemic toolbox, from vaccinations to interventions like testing, social distancing and masks.

The Israeli government recently suspended routine coronavirus testing of travelers at its international airport but is ready to begin the practice “within days” if it encounters a surge, says Sharon Alroy-Price, head of the state health service.

“When there is a wave of infections, we must wear masks, we must do tests. This means that we are living with COVID-19,” he notes.

Source: APE-MPE/Reuters.