One of the big problems facing NATO is how quickly its auxiliary forces can reach any corner of the Alliance in the event of an attack from outside. In the case of Romania and a possible mass attack from Russia, things are not looking good.

The strength of NATO allies, regardless of size and capability, is that any member state that comes under attack has the unconditional support of the armies of other allies behind it. However, one of the big problems facing NATO is how quickly this support can reach any corner of the Alliance in the event of an attack from outside. In the case of Romania and a possible mass attack from Russia, things are not looking good. NATO aid will arrive with long delays due to a lack of reliable road, rail or river transport infrastructure.

Less than 500 kilometers as the crow flies from Romania, Russia has tens of thousands of troops and heavy military equipment stationed on the Crimean Peninsula, and its navy dominates the Black Sea. That is why, no matter how improbable the scenario in which Russia decides to attack NATO through Romania, military experts cannot ignore this possibility.

Another reason is strategic. The situation is so dangerous that even if it has a small chance of happening, there must be a contingency plan: if Russia comes to attack Romania, it will control all of Europe, in two directions – the south and the Balkans, but also the center. In the event of such an attack, NATO would have great difficulty moving the bulk of its forces quickly to support Romania, in time.

The main obstacles are poor infrastructure and communications in the region, as well as the fact that Russia has influence on some of the landing points of NATO troops, according to the report of military experts of the American organization CEPA, coordinated by the American reserve general Ben Hodges. the former commander of the US forces in Europe and a good expert on the Black Sea region. The scenario developed by CEPA experts takes into account a land invasion of Russia through Romania with the occupation of the region known as the “Fokshan Gate”. “Stretching about 85 square kilometers, in the counties of Vranca, Galati, Braila and Buzeu, between Rimnicu-Serat, Panciu and the Prut and Danube riverbeds, the area is considered critical for the defense of Romania.

The downside for Romania in this scenario is that the Romanian armed forces, supported by the small NATO force present in the battalions serving the Multinational Brigade South East Command, would fall at most 24 hours before the Russian invasion. , according to simulations carried out at the Army Academy in Sibiu. NATO rapid response forces take 48-72 hours to reach any part of the Alliance. In theory, because in practice the obstacles of infrastructure and bureaucracy sometimes make this time intangible.

Read the full article on Panorama