Estonia’s foreign intelligence service said on Tuesday, Reuters reported, that Russia is preparing for a military confrontation with the West in the next decade, but could be deterred by a counter-buildup of its armed forces.

A growing number of Western officials are warning of a military threat from Russia to countries on NATO’s eastern flank, urging Europe to prepare by arming itself.

The intelligence chief said the assessment was based on Russia’s plans to double the number of forces stationed along its border with NATO member Finland and the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.

“Russia has chosen the path of long-term confrontation … and the Kremlin is probably looking forward to a possible conflict with NATO in the next decade or so,” Kaupo Rosin told reporters at the launch of a report on threats to Estonia’s national forces. security

A military attack by Russia is “highly unlikely” in the short term, he said, in part because Russia needs to keep troops in Ukraine, and would remain unlikely if Russia’s military buildup were to occur in Europe.

“If we are not prepared, the probability (of a Russian military attack) will be much higher than without any preparation,” Rozin added.

Estonia and other Baltic states have increased their military spending to more than 2 percent of GDP since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and NATO allies have increased their presence in those countries.

Germany plans to have 4,800 combat-ready troops in the region by 2027 in its first permanent foreign deployment since World War II, and Rozin said NATO and its allies are moving in the right direction to counter the threat from Russia.

Rozin does not expect a Russian breakthrough in Ukraine before the presidential election in March, as he will need to mobilize much more troops to achieve that goal.

Regarding comments from Donald Trump, who said he would not defend allies who do not spend enough on defense, Rosin said: “Those kinds of statements never help.”

Russia’s ability to supply ammunition to its forces continues to outpace Ukraine, and unless Western support is maintained or increased, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to make a difference on the battlefield, he added.

The New York Times, in a major story published last September based on statements from Ukrainian and European security officials, noted that Russia was on track to produce an annual capacity of two million rounds, double its capacity before the war in Ukraine.

Armin Papperger, chairman of the board of directors of one of Europe’s largest arms manufacturers, the German giant Rheinmetall, has warned that Europe will need 10 years to replenish its stockpiles of ammunition in the face of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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