The Biden administration is working on a long-term strategy to support Kyiv, despite the funding impasse in Congress. But these plans do not foresee significant gains for Ukraine against Russia in 2024, US officials say, The Washington Post reports, citing news.ro.

Still hurt by the failure of last year’s counteroffensive in Ukraine, the Biden administration is developing a new strategy that will place less emphasis on regaining territory and instead focus on supporting Ukraine to prevent Russian advances, while the long-term goal will be to strengthen its combat power and the economy

The new plan is a dramatic change from last year, when the US military and its allies rushed training and sent sophisticated equipment to Kyiv in the hope that it could quickly push back against Russian forces occupying eastern and southern Ukraine. This attempt failed, mainly due to heavily fortified Russian minefields and forward trenches.

The idea now is to position Ukraine to maintain its battlefield positions for the time being, but “move them onto a different trajectory so they’re much stronger by the end of 2024 and get them on a more sustainable footing,” as it says. under cover an anonymous high-ranking US administration official quoted by The Washington Post (WAPO).

PLANNING FORWARD WITH TRUMP IN MIND

The planning of the new strategy in Washington is part of a multilateral effort by almost 35 countries that support Ukraine, promising it long-term economic and security support. The reconfiguration is being done both out of necessity, given the disappointing results of last year’s counteroffensive, and out of a belief that a similar effort this year is likely to produce the same result, and as a show of steadfast resolve toward Vladimir Putin.

Each of these countries is preparing a document outlining their specific commitments that extend decades into the future.

Last week, Britain unveiled its 10-year agreement with Ukraine, signed by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi in Kyiv. The document outlines contributions in terms of “maritime security, aviation, air defence, artillery and weapons”, as well as fiscal support and access to the financial sector.

France is expected to be the next country on the occasion of President Emmanuel Macron’s upcoming visit to Ukraine.

But the success of the strategy depends almost entirely on the United States, by far the largest donor of money and equipment to Ukraine and the coordinator of multilateral efforts. This spring, the administration hopes to release its own 10-year pledge, now made by the State Department with the blessing of the White House — provided President Biden’s request for $61 billion in additional funding for Ukraine is approved by a recalcitrant Congress, WAPO writes.

“We would not have survived without the support of the United States, this is a real fact,” Zelensky said in a TV interview last week.

Not coincidentally, as one US official said, there is hope that the long-term pledge – provided, again, that it is passed by Congress – will also be a guarantee for a “presumptive” Ukraine in the event that former President Donald Trump wins. White House.

HOW THE WAR WILL LOOK IN UKRAINE

According to American officials, the American document will guarantee support for short-term military operations, as well as the development of a future Ukrainian armed force capable of deterring Russian aggression. It will include specific promises and programs to help protect, rebuild and expand Ukraine’s industrial and export base, as well as help the country with the political reforms needed to fully integrate into Western institutions.

A second high-ranking official of the Biden administration emphasized that the strategy does not mean that the Ukrainians will simply build their own defensive trenches “and sit behind them” all year. “The capture of territories” in small towns and villages of minimal strategic value, “launches of missiles and drones” by both sides and “Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure” will continue, the official warned.

The West hopes that by 2024, Ukraine will not lose more than a fifth of the country currently occupied by Russia.

In addition, Western governments want Kyiv to focus on tactics where its forces have been more successful recently – firing at longer ranges, including French cruise missiles promised to be delivered in the next few months; detention of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to protect sea transit from Ukrainian ports; blockade of Russian forces in Crimea with the help of missile attacks and sabotage thanks to special operations.

U.S. policymakers who recently met privately with the Ukrainian president say Zelensky has doubts about how ambitious the next year should be for Ukraine without certainty about U.S. aid.

“We are asked what our plan is, but we must understand what resources we will have,” People’s Deputy Roman Kostenko said. “At the moment, everything indicates that we will have less than last year, when we tried to go on a counter-offensive and it did not work out. If there is even less, then it is clear what the plan will be. It will be defense,” the deputy admitted.

HOW WILL THE WAR END?

Even those who believe that Ukraine can finally defeat Russia admit that 2024 will be a weak and dangerous year. “Most likely, there will be no huge territorial acquisitions,” Latvian President Edgars Rinkevičs said in an interview. “The only strategy is to bring as much as possible to Ukraine in order, firstly, to help them protect their own cities, and secondly, to help them simply not lose ground,” the Latvian leader explained.

Along the front line, the Ukrainian military has begun training in an effort to recreate the Russian echelon defense of trenches and minefields in the country’s southeastern Zaporozhye region, which foiled last year’s counteroffensive.

U.S. policymakers say they expect the war to eventually end through negotiations, but also don’t think Putin will be serious about talks this year, in part because he still hopes Trump will return to the presidency in November and refuse from the support provided to Kyiv. .

Trump, who has long boasted of a special relationship with Putin, said a few months ago that if he was returned to the White House, he would “solve this war in one day, 24 hours.” In a televised interview last week, Zelensky called the statement “very dangerous” and invited Trump to Kyiv to share any plans he might have.

risks

Ukraine’s long-term transformation strategy for the future dates back to last summer’s G-7 declaration of support, in which Western leaders pledged to create a “resilient” military compatible with the West and strengthen Ukraine’s “economic stability and resilience.” Despite this, this policy poses risks, including political risks, if Ukrainians begin to blame their authorities for the stagnation of the front. Officials in Western capitals are also well aware that the patience of their citizens regarding the financing of the war in Ukraine is not unlimited.

Amidst the planning, Washington also appears to be preparing the argument that unless Ukraine regains all of its territory in the short term, it needs substantial and ongoing aid to defend itself and become an integral part of the West.

A FOUR-PHASE PLAN WITHOUT A SILVER BULLET

The American document, according to American officials who were closely involved in the planning, is drawn up with four phases in mind: combat, construction, recovery and reform.

“The most important thing for the ‘combat’ phase is to provide ‘artillery ammunition and some replacement vehicles’ lost in the counteroffensive, as well as ‘many more drones,'” said Eric Ciaramella, a former CIA intelligence analyst who is now a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which consulted with administration officials. Other needs relate to electronic warfare and anti-drone technologies, where the Russians have gained the upper hand. “They need more air defense systems to cover more cities,” Chiaramella said.

Although Ukraine is still looking forward to the promised delivery of fighter jets and more armored vehicles this year, these are “expensive systems with single points of failure,” Chiaramella said. “I think Ukrainians realize that there is no silver bullet after seeing a tank worth a million dollars destroyed by a mine worth 10,000 dollars during the counteroffensive,” said the analyst.

The “build” phase of the strategy focuses on commitments to Ukraine’s future security forces on land, sea and air, so that Ukrainians “can see what they are getting from the world community within 10 years, and exit from 2024 with a road map for an army of high deterrence,” said a high-ranking official of the administration. At the same time, part of the requested additional funds is aimed at the development of the Ukrainian industrial base for the production of weapons, which, together with supplies from the United States and allied countries, will be able to “at least keep up with Russian production.”

The plan also includes additional air defenses to create protective “bubbles” around Ukrainian cities outside Kyiv and Odesa and to restore key parts of the Ukrainian economy and exports, including metallurgy and agriculture. Last fall, Biden appointed former Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker as the U.S. representative to lead efforts to revive Ukraine’s economy and mobilize public and private investment.

Attracting foreign investment to Ukraine will also require additional efforts to curb corruption, US officials admit. Zelenskyi has taken some measures, including firing and in some cases arresting military procurement officials and allegedly corrupt judges.

AND THE ELEMENT OF SURPRISE?

But while discussions and planning for the future continue, not all supporters of Ukraine believe now is the right time to stop sending Ukraine what it needs to confront the Russians as quickly and decisively as possible on the battlefield this year.

“Whatever strategy you use, you need every weapon you can think of,” former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said during a visit to Washington last week to pressure Republican congressmen to approve funding for Ukraine “.

“You can’t win a war by taking an incremental approach,” he said. “You have to surprise and defeat your opponent,” the former head of NATO warned.