Winter is approaching and international attention on Ukraine continues to wane as it nears the emotional threshold of a two-year war. Military aid to Kyiv is delayed, and ammunition in the hangars of the Armed Forces is running out. Russian President Vladimir Putin was also counting on this. If we have a protracted war, the West will be preoccupied with its own problems, such as the wave of parliamentary, presidential (and European in the EU) elections in 2024 in most Western countries, including the US presidential election.

Of course, there are signs that this military conflict could drag on for many years, as neither Russia nor Ukraine is willing to concede and is unable to achieve a decisive victory. Unfortunately, Ukraine faces a lack of financial resources, instability of ammunition stocks, less attention, but also time pressure.

Energy infrastructure remains Ukraine’s biggest weakness in the war. This is exactly what the Russian Federation is counting on to leave millions of Ukrainians in the cold and darkness. Therefore, in addition to the ammunition necessary to defeat the enemy, the Ukrainians also need highly effective anti-aircraft systems. Mainly because Russia has created a larger stockpile of missiles and drones to strike vulnerable and strategic points in Ukraine. We well remember that last winter, Ukrainians were extremely affected by power outages, which affected both the population and the Ukrainian military industry, practically blocking the activities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

What we have now in Ukraine is characterized as a war of attrition. The Ukrainian offensive, which began in June of this year and was expected to be a significant advance of the Ukrainian army in recapturing the occupied territories, did not have the expected effect. Weather conditions, very important in this war, in winter are favorable for a possible Russian offensive, for the Russian offensive (that is why Russia attacked Ukraine in winter).

The armies of both sides will face cold weather, equipment breakdowns and blocked supply routes, but nevertheless, in the northeastern part of the front, the Armed Forces have a lot of wheeled equipment, which would be much more mobile when frozen in mud.

The delay in the delivery of shells from the West threatens not only the advancement of Ukraine in the east of the country, but also the possibility of losing territory to the Russian troops, which have large capacities for the production of these ammunitions, which are constantly growing. Such a situation emphasizes the vulnerability of Ukrainians to Russian aggression and may change the balance of power.

The war highlighted the limitations of munitions resources in a large-scale conflict and at the same time showed the reduced ability of Western countries to renew their munitions stockpiles. The United States has increased production of artillery shells, but projections show that by 2025 American production could remain below Russia’s 2024 level, worrying authorities in Kyiv.

The European Union has admitted its inability to fulfill its promise to supply Ukraine with one million shells by the spring of 2024. However, EU member state leaders expressed a willingness to follow suit, saying the initial announcement had boosted additional ammunition orders and led to investment in increased manufacturing capacity by companies. Indeed, the countries of the European Union have the capacity to produce a million shells per year, but they export a significant part to other directions according to existing contracts, which, of course, include 155-millimeter cartridges (very important for Ukraine). it was also used the most in the Israeli-Palestinian war.

Europe is scrambling to cover its arms shortage amid doubts about US commitments to Ukraine. Germany, Norway, Britain and other major European arms producers are increasing production of weapons and artillery ammunition to help Kyiv. But help may come too late as winter approaches and Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia stalls. Germany, once a latecomer to aid Ukraine, has announced plans to double its aid to 8 billion euros in 2024 and deliver more air defense systems by the end of this year. And the countries of the European Union are preparing to train another 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers, bringing them up to 40,000.

At the same time, the US Congress’s interest in funding efforts to combat Russian aggression appears to be waning given new national security priorities, including those affecting other areas of the world, such as the war in the Middle East. In this regard, the need for expanded funding plans from the United States for the coming years is important, and long-term support appears to be the only solution for Ukraine’s survival in the face of Russian aggression. _Read the entire article and comment on it at contributors.ro