Half of those polled in a nationwide public opinion poll conducted by INSCOP and commissioned by News.ro say they would definitely go to vote in the parliamentary elections, with the PSD in first place in voting intentions with 28.7%, followed in order. PNL and AUR.

The PNL-AUR difference is 0.3%. In the case of the entire sample, which includes all voters, regardless of whether they go to exercise their right to vote or not, but who declared their choice in favor of one of the parties included in the parliamentary election questions, the PSD remains in first place out of 29 .5% options, but AUR is second, followed by PNL with a 4 percent difference. In the first version, the UDR would have 14.6%, in the second – 14.1%.

Diana Sosoake’s party rose to 4% compared to the previous month. The number of those who say they do not intend to vote has fallen below 20%, compared to almost a quarter of respondents who did not intend to vote in the previous poll. “The three main parties, PSD, PNL and AUR, have slightly fallen in their voting intentions compared to the previous month. Only USR and SOS Romania register a slight increase,” notes INSCOP Research director Remus Stefureak.

Country direction

The survey shows that 68.6% of Romanians believe that things in Romania are moving in the wrong direction (compared to 69.5% in September 2023), while 23.4% believe that they are moving in a good direction (compared to 21 .1% in September 2023). , and 8% do not know or do not answer.

“On average, they are more optimistic than the rest of the population about the direction of the country: young people under 30, people with higher education, white-collar workers and those with higher incomes. People between the ages of 30 and 60, people with primary education, blue or gray collar workers and people with low incomes are on average more pessimistic than the rest of the population about the direction in which the country is developing,” the socio-demographic analysis indicates.

Approximate participation of voters in parliamentary elections

On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means “definitely no” I will vote and 10 “definitely yes” I will vote, 19.7% of Romanians chose 1, 2% chose 2, 1.3% chose 3, 1, 6% chose 4, 6.4% chose 5, 1.8% chose 6, 5.5% chose 7. 6.5% chose 8, 3.7% chose 9 and 50.3% chose 10.

Intention to vote for political parties in parliamentary elections

Respondents who prefer the party from the list (66.9% of the total sample)

Compared to those who expressed a preference for a party from the list, regardless of whether they said they would vote for sure or not (66.9% of the total sample), 29.5% of Romanians would vote for the PSD (compared to 29.1% in September 2023), 20.2% from AUR (compared to 22.4% in September 2023) and 18.4% from PNL (compared to 19% in September 2023).

USR would be voted by 14.1% of Romanians (compared to 11.6% in September 2023), while SOS would receive 4.3% of voting options (compared to 3.1% in September 2023).

3.8% of those who expressed their voting option would vote for UDMR (compared to 4.1% in September 2023), and 2.6% for “Pro Romania” (compared to 2.2% in September 2023 ). 2.6% of respondents express their choice for the Green Party (compared to 2.5% in September 2023), 1.7% for PMP (compared to 2.5% in September 2023), 1% for Forza Dreptei (compared to from 1% in September 2023). ), for REPER (compared to 0.5% in September 2023). 1.3% of respondents expressed their preference for another party (versus 1.8% in September 2023).

Respondents who prefer the party from the list and declare that they will definitely go to vote (38.5% of the total sample)

Compared to those who expressed a specific preference for a party from the list (undecided and no answers were ignored) and scored 10 on the turnout question (38.5% of the total sample), 28.7% of voters would vote for the PSD ( compared to 31% in September 2023), 18.9% for PNL (compared to 20.4% in September 2023) and 18.6% for AUR (compared to 19.7% in September 2023). The UDR would get 14.6% of the total votes (compared to 12% in September 2023), and the UDMR – 4.9% (compared to 4.6% in September 2023).

4% of voters would vote for SOS (compared to 3.1% in September 2023) and 3.2% for Pro Romania (compared to 1.5% in September 2023). 2.3% of respondents would prefer the Green Party (compared to 2.7% in September 2023), 1.7% for PMP (compared to 1.7% in September 2023), 0.9% for REPER ( compared to 0.7% in September 2023), 0.6% of respondents. % for law enforcement agencies (compared to 1% in September 2023). The other party would get 1.7% of the vote (compared to 1.6% in September 2023).

“The three main parties, PSD, PNL and AUR, have slightly fallen in their voting intentions compared to the previous month. Only USR and SOS Romania register a slight increase. Over the past few months, we find PSD installs in the range of 28-30%, while AUR hovers in the range of 18-22% and PNL in the range of 18-20%. AUR seems to have slowed the upward trend, stabilizing its estimate at 20%. A possible explanation could be the rise of SOS Romania, which captures an electorate that resonates with ultra-radical ideas. On the other hand, the USR seems to be growing slightly for the first time in recent months, but it remains to be seen whether this evolution is a conjunctural or a clear trend,” says INSCOP Research Director Remus Stefureak.

The survey was conducted by INSCOP Research on behalf of News.ro. The data were collected from October 23 to November 2 using the CATI method (telephone interviews), using a questionnaire. The size of the simple stratified sample is 1100 people, representative of significant socio-demographic categories (gender, age, profession) for the non-institutionalized population of Romania aged 18 and over. The maximum allowable data error is ± 3% with a confidence level of 95%.