With this analysis, I return to the topic quadrille energy sector of Romania, once again formulating the question: in medium and long-term development forecasts, governors make the necessary correlations between energy development strategy/plans and economic development? I believe that: (i) there is no correlation between the vision of the future evolution of the industrial sector, respectively the energy sector, and (ii) nor the vision of the general economic and social development of Romania over the next 50 years. years, has a correlative in sectoral policies in the field of energy, other than those that we have to assume in the context of the Union.

Maybe I’m wrong and missing important information at the level of the prerequisites of the analysis, I don’t deny that possibility. It wouldn’t really be a tragedy, at most it compromises me as superficial in documentaries. But what should we do, if I am not mistaken, if the plans – Road map regarding the development of the energy sector in Romania – are they completely separated from the holistic vision of the future of the country for various reasons (it is good to find out what, obviously)?; in this case, it is not clear what the relevant public policies were/will be.

On the forum Climate Change Summit – Bucharest 2023, former Minister of Economy, now State Counselor in the Romanian Prime Minister’s Office, Florin Spataru, stated in a debate moderated by Ligia Munteanu that Romania will quadruple its GDP in the 2040s (hence attacking the €1000 billion ceiling) . Does higher GDP also mean more energy consumption? Intuitively, this should be the case, i.e., ideally (except for concerns about increasing energy efficiency), a certain increase energy intensity[2] it should be related to processes that contribute to the increase of GDP, if we mean a healthy process.

With the help of Cosmin Păcuraru and based on the data of Transelectrica and the World Bank, we have built a simple diagram that shows in one picture the evolution of Romania’s GDP between 2010-2022 (inclusive), electricity consumption and production, in try to understand if such correlations exist, and if no, what is their reason. The result: we have a certain slope of GDP over these 13 years, while electricity production/consumption shows more of a horizontal line; these two trends are difficult to correlate.

Evolution of GDP and variations in electricity production and consumption in Romania

Undoubtedly, there are explanations for the lack of correlation, some of which immediately come to mind: the main driver of GDP growth was consumption, not industrial production, not construction, not the service sector. The energy intensity associated with the processes of GDP growth decreased once and remained constant at the general level. The greenhouse gas (GHG) development graph also shows that deindustrialization has taken place[3].

Using the Amazing Maps chart, Economia It was recently reported that between 2000 and 2022, Romania’s GDP had the most significant GDP dynamics on the European continent, increasing by 788%, from $37.28 billion.[4] In just the 13 years tracked in the first chart, GDP grew by 80% from about $170 billion to about $300 billion.

During all this time, our economy was forced to abandon many of its energy-intensive, but also completely inefficient industries, remained (for various reasons, not all objective) without a market, as well as a significant part of energy production capacities (based on coal or fuel oil), without experiencing an imbalance between the production and consumption of electricity, while for natural gas it was not necessary to import more than 10% – 15% of the necessary (there are also nuances related to the lack of investment in the development of production and interest in importing Russian gas).

From this we conclude that if – who knows? – State Councilor Florin Spataru’s predictions come true by 2024, with a quadrupling of GDP, energy consumption is likely to grow much more modestly, perhaps doubling at most, reaching 100-110 TWh per year.[5]. In order to make the forecast closer to reality, planners need to know which pattern of consumption in the economy and society in general they will turn to.

In other words, it is necessary to be able to provide a forecast of what the energy intensity curve will look like under three scenarios – pessimistic, realistic, optimistic – for the years 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060 and 2070..

Who can get us out of trouble: the National Strategy and Forecasting Commission? Government? Romanian Academy? Who knows what our economy will look like in the next two, three, five decades? What will our cities and villages, our households look like? What will the European Union look like in 20 years and what will be our place in the architecture of the Union?

Even in our families, we are not advised to make long-term investment decisions without a prior plan to rationalize these decisions as much as possible. Especially when it comes to the country! Especially since in the near future, as the Union expands, we will turn from a net beneficiary of European funds into a donor who will support the integration of Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and the Western Balkans.

A DISCRETE MECHANISM OF BUILDING A VISION OF THE FUTURE

Roadmaps are in fashion today: the International Energy Agency’s “Roadmap to Zero Emissions”[6]”Roadmap for a new nuclear sector” of the European Nuclear Agency[7]; The European Commission’s Roadmap to 2050 for the Energy Transition, revised and reimagined as “Implementation of the European Green Deal”[8] and so on. And we have one Road map (or more), as Minister Sebastián Burduha defined the obligations of state policy in the energy sector, included in the PNRR:

PNRR is a chance for the development of Romania that cannot be lost under any circumstances. It is not just a road map, it is a country program that includes reforms and projects – both components are vital. As in my previous service, one of my top priorities is the timely completion of milestones and goals in PNRR.[9]

There is also PNIESC, the government’s medium-term climate change planning tool up to 2030 or as defined Memorandum approved by the Government:

The Integrated National Plan for Energy and Climate Change 2021-2030 (PNIESC) reflects Romania’s commitment to contribute to the ambitious 2030 European energy and climate targets by establishing (i) a national target for reducing domestic emissions , the greenhouse effect, increasing the share of energy from renewable sources in final energy consumption, increasing energy efficiency in all sectors of the economy and increasing the degree of interconnection of the internal electricity market with the European energy market, as well as some (ii) policies and measures to achieve these goals.

The policies and measures necessary to achieve the goals and objectives set out in the PNIESC were developed in the period 2018-2020 within the framework of an interagency working group consisting of 17 authorities and public institutions coordinated by the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Energy. Environment, water and forests based on government policy documents relevant to each sector of the economy.

As you know, PNIESK was approved by Government Resolution No. 1076/2021, as well as in accordance with Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 on the management of the Energy Union and climate action, by March 15, 2023, and then every two years, each member state is obliged to report to the Commission on the state of implementation of its integrated national energy and climate plan through an integrated interim national report covering all five dimensions of the Energy Union, a tool that ensures the monitoring of each Member State’s progress and the assessment of the extent to which national targets have been achieved.[10]

I have heard rumors that after Minister Sebastián Burduha took over the energy portfolio, he brought his previous research experience (innovation and technology) to the new ministry, organizing Honorary Council[11]in order to provide recommendations on state policy to the Minister of Energy in order to achieve goals… and after the dot, I don’t know what else to fill in, because I found almost no public information about this structure affiliated with the Ministry of Energy.

By to close Taking this opportunity, I note that I still found the text of order 1420, issued in the last days of October this year. Minister of Energy, which provides creation, organization and activity of the Honorary Council on Energy, where the purpose is defined in Article 1, paragraph (2), and the goals are defined in Article 2. And the purpose is for the members of this council to provide recommendations to the ministry, thus supporting it in developing strategies and plans for the future and in developing public policy.

Extract from order 1420/2023. Source: Ministry of Energy

In principle, I am not afraid to say it, very good, but I have two remarks. First: the order to create the body was passed in the last days of October, but it seems that the structure has been working since the beginning of the month and has already held at least one plenary meeting with the participation of Minister Sebastian Burduzhi. Nothing was announced publicly, no one from the press was present, no further press release was issued. I wonder why?

Second note: Honorary Council of the Ministry of Research, etc. had 24 members. The Honorary Council of the Ministry of Energy seems to have more, 30 or more (33?). Who will they be, how were they selected and what exactly recommended them to become part of the group of sages? A fair question, I say, because according to order 1420, 30 or 33 will give recommendations of strategies, plans, policies, which the ministry undertakes to take into account.

But some of the 33 might be – why not? – in incompatibilities or conflicts of interest so that they can unimpededly promote a group, business or even cliques or foreign powers in the region who are just waiting for such opportunities.

So I think the Department of Energy, the Minister himself, could lift the veil of secrecy by publishing a list of 30 or 33, opening the Board sessions to the press or even to the general public, and issuing a press release at the end of each session where the minutes contain the Board’s recommendations to the Department. Fair and honest: everything is in plain sight! No control over the actions of the government works better than public! – Read the entire article and comment on contributors.ro