The situation on the front around the town of Avdiyivka illustrates the inability of the Russian military command to learn from the mistakes it has made since the start of the war on the battlefield, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an analysis on Thursday. conflict in Ukraine, which has been going on for more than 20 months.

According to ISW analysts, Avdiyivka is a microcosm of the failure of the Russian General Staff to absorb and disseminate the lessons learned by Russian forces during the failed offensives against Ukraine.

ISW mentioned “equally catastrophic” attacks by Russian infantry using armored vehicles, in particular, last winter’s offensive in western Donetsk region.

The march of the Russians to the well-fortified settlement of Vugledar resulted in significant losses of equipment and personnel.

According to ISW, Russian forces have carried out such attacks in several areas of the Ukrainian front since the beginning of the war in February 2022.

The current offensive near Avdiivka has also led to heavy losses among Russian troops, which indicates a lack of strategic adaptation.

The fact that two very different groupings of forces engaged in equally ineffective operations suggests that the Russian military command is trying to learn and disseminate lessons in the theater of war, analysts at a US think tank say.

Valery Gerasimov, the main culprit of the failure of the army

ISW noted the negligence of the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, whom it considers “ultimately responsible for this failure.”

Analysts at the institute compared Gerasimov to the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, who published an analysis of the war for The Economist on Wednesday, which ISW said was a “cautious and public assessment” of Ukraine’s military challenges, in contrast to Gerasimov’s babbling.

Ukraine’s military chief believes the war between Ukraine and Russia is headed for a new phase of static fighting and attrition, a phase that could allow Moscow to regain its military power.

Zaluzhny said his army needs new key military capabilities and technological innovations to emerge from the new phase of the war.

“Primary weapons such as missiles and shells remain important. But the armed forces of Ukraine need key military capabilities and technologies to get out of this kind of war. Air power is the most important,” Zaluzhny wrote in an article for The Economist.

Battles of attrition

He described the risks of a prolonged war of attrition: “It will benefit Russia by allowing it to rebuild its military power, which will ultimately threaten the armed forces of Ukraine and the state itself.”

The Ukrainian general noted that Russia’s air superiority complicated the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops, launched in June 2023.

The Ukrainian military officer also emphasized the need to improve demining technologies, build up reserve forces, and drew attention to loopholes in national legislation that allow people to evade military service.

Russian troops are probably preparing for another wave of infantry-led ground attacks on Ukrainian positions in the Avdiyivka region, the ISV notes.

“Meat attacks”

Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesman for the Tavrian Army Group of Ukraine, said Monday that Russian forces were preparing for “meat attacks,” a term used to describe infantry strikes without artillery support.

This kind of attack is carried out by Storm-Z assault units, which consist mainly of convicted Russians, who will be used in the future for assaults without equipment.

Russia has suffered its heaviest losses since 2023 in the battle for Avdiivka, and the demands of the political leadership appear once again to be at odds with the actual capabilities of the military, according to a British intelligence assessment on Saturday.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Wednesday that Russia has lost 302,420 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion.

This number includes 930 losses of Russian troops in the last day alone.