Moscow is sending troops to the Avdiivka region, despite great difficulties with mechanized shelling, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War.

According to ISW, Russian media bloggers believe that the Moscow troops probably stopped their advance on the Adviyiv front due to a “positional impasse”.

Russian troops fail to bypass the Ukrainian minefields near Avdiyivka, as well as destroy Ukrainian logistical support, allowing the Ukrainian army to quickly redeploy personnel to important areas of the front.

Several Russian media bloggers stated that there were no significant changes on the front in the direction of Avdiyivka, which became the gateway to the recapture of the Russian-held city of Donetsk and Donbass, which consists of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

ISW analysts believe that Russian forces are likely to halt again after a failed major offensive, suffering heavy losses.

“Unexpected” counterattack

A well-known Russian media blogger said that Ukrainian forces “suddenly” counterattacked in the direction of Piskivy (8 km southwest of Donetsk) and pushed Russian forces out of positions in the area.

Another media blogger said that claims of Ukrainian advances near Piskiy and Opytny (4 km south of Avdiyivka) were false, and geolocation images released on Saturday indicated that Russian forces had recently made a small advance southeast of Pervomaiskyi (11 km southwest of Avdiivka), ISW notes. .

Several Ukrainian sources said that Russia appeared to be sending more personnel in the direction of Advivka to support offensive operations, despite heavy casualties, indicating that Russia likely has no intention of ending operations in that direction.

Some analysts believe that the situation in the Adviivka area has become reminiscent of the battle for Bakhmut, which was the “meat grinder”, as it was called, the bloodiest front of the war in Ukraine until May 2023, when the city was captured by Moscow.

The population of Russia is shrinking

ISW believes that the pro-war Russian information space appears to be considering the possibility of a significant demographic decline, using anti-migrant rhetoric as a weapon. Recently, the Federal State Statistics Service announced that by January 2046, the population of Russia will decrease to 138.77 million people.

According to the World Bank, the population of Russia is 143.4 million people.

Some Russian commentators have argued that Russia’s population decline can be explained by an influx of migrants, and have even called for ethnic Russians to rapidly increase their birthrate.

Earlier this week, the independent Russian publication Mediazon together with BBC Russia confirmed the names of 34,857 Russian soldiers who have died since the start of the war in February 2022.

The number of dead Russian soldiers in the war in Ukraine

The death toll was obtained from public information such as social media posts by relatives, local media reports and statements from local authorities, as the Russian government does not confirm the names of soldiers who died in Ukraine.

Mediazona states that the number of Russian military deaths in Ukraine since February 2022 is likely to be much higher than the confirmed figure of 34,857.

Since the start of the war, Russia has suffered between 150,000 and 190,000 casualties (killed or wounded), according to the UK Ministry of Defence. If the number of wounded who are due to return to the battlefield is added, the figure rises to 240,000-290,000, the British Ministry of Defense X said.