Romania has full gas reserves, but this does not mean that prices will decrease and that we will not be able to survive the winter without imports. This is because the possibilities of extracting gas from these deposits are limited. European warehouses are also full, but experts warn that prices depend more on the outside temperature, and in the case of a frosty winter, stocks may not be enough.

“I want to tell you that as of October 9, we had 99.72% of reserves, 2.861 billion cubic meters. The amount of natural gas that certainly gives us the comfort to publicly state that there will be no natural gas supply problems, the rhetoric we hear at the start of every winter: “we’re going to be out in the cold, we’re going to have no gas.” Romania is ready to survive this winter well,” said George Niculescu, president of the National Administration, Energy Regulation (ANRE), yesterday at a specialized conference.

Transgaz data shows Romania had 3.17 billion cubic meters in storage today.

Of course, it is good that we have stocks for the winter, but it does not mean that we will be independent of imports, especially on very frosty days or if there are long frosts with high consumption.

This is due to the fact that the possibilities of gas extraction from deposits are limited.

On a normal winter day, consumption in Romania is around 50-55 million cubic meters, but on a frosty day it can exceed 70 million cubic meters, as it was before.

Domestic gas production can reach 20-25 million cubic meters. 30-32 million cubic meters can be extracted from the storages at the beginning of winter, when the storages are full, but as they are emptied, the amount that can be extracted also decreases.

Therefore, at the end of winter, only 20 million cubic meters per day can be removed from the warehouses, and that is when the system is most vulnerable.

Therefore, we will not be able to survive the winter without imports.

Before the war in Ukraine, the only source of Romania’s imports was the Russian Federation.

Last year, Romgaz signed a contract with the Azerbaijani oil and gas company SOCAR to import gas to Romania and OMV Petrom from Turkey from October 1.

Gas prices will depend on winter temperatures

All over Europe, by the way, gas storages are full, the target of 90% for November has been exceeded since August.

The announcement of the target, accompanied by warm early autumn weather, led to a brief drop in the price at the TTF gas hub in Amsterdam, where benchmark prices for the European market are formed.

But the downward trend did not last, and as winter approaches, prices have returned to growth and are now around €50 per MWh.

Even if this price is significantly lower than the record 320 euros last August, it is still higher than the price before the war in Ukraine, when a MWh of gas cost 20 euros.

“The fact that gas storage in Europe is filling up almost earlier than usual, usually reaching this level only in October, unfortunately does not necessarily mean that prices will continue to fall. These reserves may not be enough if the winter is very frosty. a long time, which increases the risks for gas prices,” said Tom Marzek-Manser, chief analyst at ICIS, as quoted by Energypress.

He noted that traders remain concerned about gas supplies in the market.