Former Prime Minister Robert Fico’s left-wing Smer-SD party won Saturday’s election in NATO member Slovakia after pledging to end arms shipments to Ukraine, block Kyiv’s possible NATO membership and oppose sanctions against Russia. POLITICO notes.

With 98% of ballots counted in this tiny country of just 5.5 million people, Smer-SD won 23.4% of the vote, beating the liberal, pro-Western Progressive Slovakia by nearly seven percentage points and almost 200,000 votes.

The winner of the election has the first chance to form a majority in the 150-seat parliament.

Fico’s campaign has sparked international concern over fears he will move Slovakia into the anti-Kyiv camp alongside Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Fico has demonstrated a pro-Moscow orientation by pledging to end arms supplies to Kiev and opposing sanctions, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no signs of backing down from the war he launched in 2022.

Tiny Slovakia has proven to be one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters since the start of Russia’s invasion last year, approving massive military aid to Kiev. If we talk about the cost of aid packages in relation to the population, then Slovakia would be one of the most important partners of Ukraine.

Among other things, in March of this year, the government of Bratislava announced that it would send modernized MiG-29 fighters to Kyiv. Slovakia thus became only the second country to commit to sending military aircraft to Ukraine, with Bratislava’s announcement coming only a day after Warsaw’s.

Fico’s turn for the coalition

Despite deep polarization in Slovakia, Fico is in a good position to return to power with the support of Vocea, a social democratic breakaway party from Smer-SD, which came third with 15% of the vote.

Glas is headed by Peter Pellegrini, who succeeded Fico as Slovakia’s leader in 2018 during the political crisis following the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak.

After Smer-SD’s defeat in the 2020 elections, Pellegrini turned his back on the party and Fico to form Glas with 10 MPs defecting from Smed-SD.

Pellegrini said in February that Fico was “a politician from the past” and someone who “can no longer offer Slovakia any hope or vision for the 21st century”.

A bitter aftertaste for the leader of Progressive Slovakia

“It was a trauma for all of us,” Fico said at a political rally in his hometown of Topolčany on August 30. — We have two parties here with the same social program, which come from the same roots in Smer-SD and which I know. Therefore, I believe that the basis for a successful, stable and sovereign, socially oriented government should be the cooperation of Smer-SD and Glas.”

After the election results were announced at 4 a.m. on Sunday, Pellegrini said he expected to receive an offer of cooperation from Fico and that “nothing prevents us from forming such a coalition”, even if we have “two former prime ministers”. in the same government is not an optimal solution.”

Another potential coalition partner for Fico could be the Slovak National Party (SNS), which received 5.7% of support. SNS united with Smer-SD in the government between 2006-2010 and 2016-2020. SNS leader Andriy Danko said that there is hope that the country’s next government will be “pro-national, pro-social”.

According to the election results, the three parties would control 81 seats in the legislature, which means a majority.

The final result may leave a bitter aftertaste for the leader of Progressive Slovakia, Michal Šimečka.

The first exit polls after polls closed on Saturday night gave the PS a narrow lead over Smer-SD, encouraging the former journalist, Oxford doctor and member of the European Parliament to believe he can win his first term as prime minister.

Pro-Russian rhetoric

Saturday’s vote was seen as crucial for Slovakia’s future, not only because of Fico’s promises to cut aid to Ukraine, but also because of his pro-Moscow sympathies in the NATO member state.

For example, in August Fitso told his audience in Topolchany that “the war in Ukraine started not a year ago, but in 2014, when Ukrainian Nazis and fascists started killing Russian citizens in Donbas and Luhansk.”

Fico also praised the Soviet Union for allegedly liberating Czech and Slovak territories from Nazi Germany at the end of World War II. For God’s sake, they freed us, we must respect,” he called on his compatriots.

“We must tell the whole world that freedom came from the East, war always comes from the West,” he added.

“It was clearly a victory for the Red Army, and Smer-SD will remember this story every day, every hour, every second,” Fico told supporters at a rally in August.

Fico is inspired by Orbán

Rastislav Kacer, a career diplomat and former foreign minister of Slovakia, believes that the Hungarian prime minister is a model of Robert Fico, who uses Russian rhetoric to get votes even if he is not pro-Moscow.

“Mr. Fico finds great inspiration in Orbán’s governing style, who is Putin’s political model,” Kacher said. stoking anti-Western populist sentiment at home, feigning rebellious bravado against the EU and NATO, and then acting as if nothing happened.”

Robert Fizo accused Soros of overthrowing his government

Fico, a textbook populist, was the country’s prime minister from 2006 to 2010 and then again from 2012 to 2018, during which he railed against the West to his domestic electorate but still tried not to upset Europe’s international order.

But what happened next shook Slovakia to its core.

Jan Kuciak, a young investigative journalist who investigated suspected corruption in Fico’s government regarding EU subsidies as well as the Italian mafia, was murdered in February 2018 along with his fiancee, Martina Kushnirova.

Slovakia saw its biggest protests since the Velvet Revolution that led to the fall of communism, with tens of thousands of Slovaks taking to the streets for months.

Fico eventually relented and resigned, but not before accusing American billionaire George Soros of funding protests against his government.

The following year, Zuzana Chaputova, a former lawyer and environmental activist, won the presidential election, and a few months later led the formation of a reformist government.

However, soon after, the COVID-19 pandemic began and the resulting turbulence. Since then, Slovakia has had four prime ministers, with ruling coalitions falling apart over differences over measures to combat the pandemic, high inflation and a cost-of-living crisis.

The last government, led by former prime minister Eduard Heger, fell last December after a vote of no confidence in him. He served on an interim basis until June, when he asked the president to remove him from office.