Less than two weeks have passed since I wrote here that difficult times are coming for Ukraine in relations with Poland, and in recent days there has been an uproar with statements about the cessation of arms supplies (the declarations were initially made belligerently). , then flipped, styled and swept under the rug), high-level backbiting at the UN and Warsaw, subpoenas of ambassadors for wiretapping, etc. All this against the background of the Ukrainian grain transport crisis, which is a much bigger challenge for Poland than, for example, for Romania.

Apparently, the reason for this seemingly sudden, but actually smoldering since the beginning of 2023, is the parliamentary elections in Poland next month, which will produce a new government. And everything is on the edge of a knife due to the rise of the Polish AUR party called the Confederation. After a lot of commenting on the topic, which is generally parochial, here it is time to listen to a real expert on Polish-Ukrainian relations: Piotr Buras, senior researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), head of their office in Warsaw. Because this topic affects us somehow, and with the elections, as Buras says, the mess will not end. The text is below.

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Polish-Ukrainian relations became hostages of the Polish election campaign. The competition between the nationally conservative ruling party Law and Justice (PiS) and the far-right party Konfederacja for the votes of nationalist and anti-Ukrainian voters damages Poland’s image as an unequivocal supporter of Ukraine and risks harming bilateral relations.

Warsaw’s military support for Ukraine will not change significantly after Moravetskyi’s statement (about ending arms supplies – N.T.). The decrease in supplies is not due to a lack of political will, but in fact due to the depletion of Polish resources. Moravetskyi’s statement, which emphasized the need to invest in national defense rather than focus on supporting Ukraine, was aimed primarily at a domestic audience that has become skeptical of Ukraine due to recent grain import disputes and historical disputes. However, this does great harm to the Ukrainian cause, as this narrative parallels and legitimizes those voices in Europe (mainly from the extreme right) who question the need to supply arms to Ukraine.

The increasing nervousness of Poland in relations with Ukraine will not disappear after the parliamentary elections on October 15. In Poland, “after the elections” also means “before the elections”. The election campaign will continue, as the formation of the government will be difficult and we cannot rule out early elections in the spring of 2024. The European elections in 2024 and the presidential elections in 2025 will also affect the political debate, in which the consensus on support for Ukraine will play an important role in the breakdown.

The dispute with Ukraine is proof of Poland’s self-marginalization in the EU. Today, Kyiv seems to pay less attention to relations with Warsaw and is ready to sacrifice them, not least because Warsaw’s influence in the EU as a supporter of Ukraine has diminished. In view of the upcoming debates on reforming, expanding and reconstructing the EU, Ukraine has refocused on those countries that have the greatest importance in the EU: Germany and France. Poland is less useful to Kyiv today than in the past. – Read the entire article and comment on contributors.ro