Russia may be able to ramp up production of artillery shells over the next two years to about 2 million rounds a year, roughly double some earlier Western expectations but still far from Moscow’s needs for the war in Ukraine, a Western official told Reuters.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, estimated that Russia fired between 10 and 11 million projectiles into Ukraine last year.

“It’s a difficult situation he’s in,” the official told a small group of reporters.

“If you went through 10 million rounds last year and you’re in the middle of a war and you can only produce 1 or 2 million rounds a year, I don’t think you’re in a very strong position.”

Tanks: It takes Russia a decade to catch up to where it left off

Other Russian investments in the defense sector could also allow Moscow to produce nearly 200 tanks a year, double previous Western estimates, the official said.

But even this, according to the official, is far from what he needs after the great losses in Ukraine.

“If you lose 2,000 tanks, it will take a decade to get back to where you started,” the official said, adding that Russia also lost 4,000 armored fighting vehicles in the conflict, more than 100 aircraft and lost 270,000 soldiers, including both killed and wounded.

In May, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Serhiy Shoigu stated that the production of weapons and the supply of weapons to the front line in Ukraine will be crucial for the success of the “special forces operation”.

“They have to turn to these questionable partners”

In July, Shoigu visited North Korea. The White House said Russia is now reaching out to North Korea to help it replenish its stockpiles, adding that arms talks between Moscow and Pyongyang are moving forward.

A Western official said the talks were likely aimed at supplying artillery and showed Moscow’s desperation in Ukraine.

“He must turn to these dubious partners to support his disastrous invasion of Ukraine. And it will cost her a fortune, because North Korea will demand a good price for her,” the official said.

Russia’s economy is under pressure

The official said the Russian economy itself is under pressure as Moscow diverts resources to Ukraine, increasing defense spending and cutting “spending on everything else.”

“This increases the risk of social unrest against a volatile political backdrop,” the official said.

The claims of Russian tensions came as several Republican presidential candidates questioned US aid to Ukraine, fueling concerns about whether Washington will maintain its support amid an intensified 2024 election campaign.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the US government has provided over $43 billion in arms and other military aid to Ukraine.