The alliance with the PSD, the management of the government, the lack of a communication strategy and a charismatic leader made the PNL the third party in Romania officially listed in the polls with 18% confidence. The party, de facto led by Klaus Iohannis, has been fighting each other for the past two years, settling with its own electorate and losing percentages without appeal.

With the prospect of four rounds of voting in 2024, tensions within the PNL are growing. PNL leaders are actually unhappy that they are not informed about the decisions made in the Coalition. The latest episode is the Government’s statement on assuming responsibility for the package of fiscal measures.

• Why the government takes responsibility in the parliament for the tax reform / Cholak’s step, which is visible in the electoral key

PNL President Nicolae Chuke did not inform the liberals in the party’s leadership of Prime Minister Marcel Cholaka’s intention to adopt fiscal measures by assuming government responsibility in parliament. Cholak’s public statement at the beginning of the government meeting irritated the liberals, who were taken by surprise.

Who and how manages PNL

In the PNL since last year, there has been a breakdown in communication and cooperation at two levels between President Nicolae Chuke, Secretary General Lucian Bode and the four First Vice Presidents and Vice Presidents of the PNL.

Sources inside the PNL explained to HotNews.ro that Cuke and Bode make decisions on behalf of the PNL in two directions: either they get the decisions from Kotrocen or from Marcel Čolaku.

“Chuke is the only one who keeps in touch with President Klaus Iohannis. If the president has something to convey about a decision of an economic and political nature, he does it through Chuke. Otherwise, Chuke is always in the government with Cholak, they talk together, whisper, and in the end he does what the prime minister says. Bode supports him, he makes sure that the decisions made by Chuke are confirmed, and the whole party is informed and confronted with the fact that it has come true,” the cited sources explain.

After the government round, decisions in the PNL remained to be made by Nicolae Chouquet and Lucian Bode. Meetings of the Permanent National Bureau, in which the First Vice-Presidents and Vice-Presidents of the PNL participated, became much less frequent. Although the BPN is supposed to meet weekly, meetings are held every few months.

The last meeting of the National Bureau took place on July 3, when Dan Vilcana, a former minister of finance and close to Florin Citza, was asked to be expelled from the party.

Cholaku keeps Chuke in “political life”.

In this context, Nicolae Chuke is “connected by the umbilical cord” with the leader of the PSD Marcel Čolaku, participating in most of the meetings of the Prime Minister.

According to HotNews.ro sources, Nicolae Chuke is in the government every day, and Marcel Cholaku is doing everything possible to make the PNL president a decisive factor in government decisions.

“Cholaku obviously wants to keep Chuke alive, from a political point of view. The longer Chuke remains at the head of the PNL, the more the PSD can do what it wants, make all the decisions. It is important to create the feeling that Ciucă is an equal partner of the PSD,” the cited sources explained.

Who are the disaffected people in PNL

If in 2022 the Liberals recognized that decisions must be made in Cotrocen and rallied behind Nicolae Chouquet and Lucian Bode, in 2023 discontent and disillusionment came to the surface and the caucus ended at Willy Luck, out of sight. mass media In this way, the PNL leaders had the opportunity to “do group therapy”, air their grievances and ease the pressure from the party.

• Behind the scenes of the PNL meeting: Boloyan and Blaha, sharp attacks on Chuke and Bode: “We are PSD waiters in the government, pillars are better known than ministers

Among those who internally challenged the decisions of Chuke and Bode are first vice presidents Dan Motreanu, Rares Bohdan, Julian Dumitrescu, as well as executives Ilie Boloyan, Emil Boc, Lucian Blaga and vice presidents Robert Sigarteu, Florin Romana, Alexandru Muraru and Virgil Huran.

What will be the future of the PNL in the 2024 elections – the latest poll

Besides group therapy and simmering coalition tensions, the future of the PNL is tied to the future of the PSD. According to HotNews.ro’s discussions with liberal leaders, who did not want to be quoted, the PNL has two options for 2024: stay in government instead of PSD or break the coalition and leave the government. Both options have advantages and disadvantages, and there are several variables to consider.

The coalition with the PSD, the lack of a charismatic leader and the lack of a coherent communication strategy led to the loss of a significant number of percentages in the year and a half of the government. It should be noted that according to an analysis of voting intentions by INSCOP Research, the PNL lost the most percentage, just over 8 percent (compared to June 2021, when the party recorded a percentage of 26.6%).

• INSCOP survey: PSD has lowest score in two years, but still in first place in willingness to vote / How PNL, USR and AUR look

The current situation in the party is also the result of political insecurity and lack of engagement among the leaders who opposed the way of conducting politics of Nicolae Chuke and Lucian Bode. The lack of a communication strategy has harmed the party as much as the partnership with the PSD. Apart from internal opposition, sporadically demonstrated at meetings, no PNL leader has taken responsibility for communicating the decisions made by the party to the electorate.

“We all handed over the responsibility and communication strategy to Chuke and Bode, both without experience and political acumen. We looked elsewhere when it came to the future of the party,” a high-ranking PNL leader admitted.

According to the estimates of dissatisfied leaders, in 2024, after the elections to the European Parliament, an internal rebellion in the NLP is possible, which could cause a major political crisis and the exit from the government.

In the first election, we will really see how many percentages the party will gain, and the two leaders at the forefront of decisions, Nicolae Chuke and Lucian Bode, will be the first to go.

In this context, the “rebellion” may or may not cause the PNL to leave the government.

Until then, however, the strategy currently being followed by PNL remains in place. Refusal to fight PSD in 2024 general elections PNL and PSD sources have confirmed to HotNews.ro that there have been discussions at the top of both parties regarding a non-aggression pact between the two parties in the 2024 general elections.

The Liberals would therefore demand guarantees that they would retain their control of the cities and counties they currently lead, and that the number of mayors and county council seats would be largely secured if they did not fight the PSD.

The discussion was to take place in a small circle between PNL and PSD leaders just outside the government ring road and would be initialed, the quoted sources said.

According to the agreement in principle, the PSD will not steal PNL mayors and councilors, and the Social Democratic Mayors will keep their promise and not campaign against PNL mayors (which raises many questions). If the agreement for 2024 is followed, the liberals will not be able to secure all their positions and will lose some due to the redistribution of mandates according to the availability and number of votes.

However, the losses will be reasonable compared to the war on PSD’s face.

In the event of the collapse of the coalition and the departure of the NLP from the government, the Social Democrats will have all the tools to conduct an election campaign against them. And most important in an election year is access to resources, which will be cut for the PNL and completely for the PSD.