Ukrainian strikes in areas behind the Russian front demonstrably worsen the morale of Moscow forces in Ukraine, which may threaten the stability of Russian defenses in several critical areas of the front, the Institute for the Study of War notes in its latest assessment.

Russian frontline units, especially in the south of Ukraine, often experienced low morale after Ukrainian strikes on the rearguard.

There are conditions for a front breakthrough

Morale problems could escalate and spread quickly among Russian front-line units if a unit under pressure falters, potentially spreading panic and significantly reducing the combat effectiveness of other Moscow forces.

A breakthrough of a Russian front-line unit would threaten the integrity of other front-line defense structures, and such a breakthrough of the Russian front would create a vulnerability that could be exploited by Ukrainian forces.

Russian forces are also likely to lack the reserves needed to rotate troops or quickly replace a broken unit, making it imperative to maintain front-line unit morale.

The question of morale in relation to Russian defense against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations is relevant only if Ukrainian forces are able to reduce Russian morale to the extreme limit and take advantage of this

These morale problems will not matter if the Russian forces do not succumb to this pressure.

It is impossible to predict whether, when or where a Russian unit may give in under constant pressure, but Ukrainian forces are creating the conditions to increase the likelihood of such a development.

Anger over Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory

Ukrainian strikes on areas even more distant from the front, including deep into Russia, generate discontent in the Russian information space and provoke criticism of the Russian military command, which is probably the intention of Ukraine.

Some Russian military bloggers expressed anger at the recent Ukrainian strikes on the Kerch Bridge and called on Russian forces to attack the families, homes and other property of Ukrainian politicians to deter further Ukrainian strikes on areas behind Russian forces.

Millbloggers referred to previous Soviet and Russian retaliation strategies in Lebanon and the North Caucasus, with one stating that it was easy for Russian officials to ignore the need for retaliation because Ukrainian strikes did not directly affect their livelihoods.

On Sunday, the former ambassador of the so-called Luhansk “people’s republic” Rodion Miroshnyk said that strikes on Moscow are normalizing, this statement was made after three consecutive days of allegedly Ukrainian strikes on the capital, and called on Russian forces to carry out “personally”. painful “retaliatory strikes” for the decision-makers who gave the orders to strike Moscow.

An inside Russian source said that Russian air defenses did not activate to protect against a night strike on a railway station in the city of Kursk, underscoring the fact, rightly reported by Russian bloggers, that Russian forces were unable to counter the strikes on Russian territory. .

The UK Ministry of Defense has assessed that the Russian leadership is likely to have pressured the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) to improve the cover of Russian air defenses in western Russia, suggesting that both the Russian senior leadership and the ultra-nationalist information space are exerting pressure on command. Russian military command in response to the strikes.