Sales of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Romania will end 2023 with an estimated growth of around 7% compared to 2022, but local car production will be negative, the only decline among the five analyzed markets* in Central Europe. PwC in the Autofacts report.

“The Romanian car market has developed well this year, with a noticeable progress in the electric car segment and a significant decline in the used car segment. On the other hand, on the production side, although a small recovery was observed in some months, the forecasts for the whole year are not too optimistic. We expect a recovery in light commercial vehicle production in 2023 to partially offset the rapid loss of car production. Both Ford and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi have plans until 2030 for the Transit Courier and Dacia Dokker,” said Daniel Angel, Partner, Head of Automotive Services at PwC Romania.

Second place in Central Europe in terms of sales

In the second quarter, car sales increased by 13.8% compared to the same period last year and by 59.6% compared to April-June 2020, the period affected by the pandemic. The economic sentiment indicator remained relatively stable, but on the other hand, the industrial confidence indicator had a zigzagging trajectory, alternating between positive and negative every few months, which weighed on sales figures.

The 7% sales growth expected this year puts Romania second in the region behind Hungary (7.7%) and ahead of Slovakia (6.8%), Poland (3%) and the Czech Republic at 2%.

Growing by 45.9% in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year, Dacia sold more cars than the next five brands combined during this period. Sales of both light commercial vehicles and passenger cars are expected to continue near pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Autofacts estimates that 2019 passenger car sales will be surpassed in 2026, even if growth slows significantly.

According to data from S&P Global Mobility, light vehicle sales in the five markets will grow modestly by 4.2% in 2023 compared to 2022.

Reduction in production

According to Autofacts, among the markets analyzed, Romania is the only market with a negative growth forecast for 2023 compared to the previous year, with production volumes expected to decline by 3.2% year-on-year.

By 2022, Romania ranked third in Central Europe in terms of car production after the Czech Republic and Slovakia and ahead of Poland and Hungary. However, this year it will drop one place, to four, overtaken by Poland, and by 2026 it will also be overtaken by Hungary.

In general, production in the five analyzed Central European countries increased in the first half of the year by 16.9% compared to the first six months of 2022 to 2.1 million units. The projected growth rate for the whole year is 9%, with Poland recording the largest increase at 33.4%, while the only decrease is Romania at 3.2%.

The production of electric vehicles in Central Europe is growing steadily and is now approaching 20% ​​in the second quarter of 2023. Although 2023 production is somewhat evenly split between BEVs, FHEVs, and PHEVs, BEVs are expected to grow significantly at an average of 33.1% through 2030 and account for more than 50% of total future production.

*This report analyzes the markets of Romania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia.

Article supported by PwC Romania