The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today estimated that Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement that allowed Ukrainian exports through the Black Sea could lead to an increase in world grain prices by 10-15%, Sky News reports.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gurincha told reporters that the Black Sea Grain Agreement was “very helpful” in securing large supplies of grain from Ukraine, alleviating pressure on food prices.

“We’re still evaluating where we’re going to go, but we think a 10-15 percent increase in grain prices is a reasonable estimate,” he said.

On Tuesday, the IMF forecast global inflation to fall to 6.8% in 2023 from 8.7% in 2022.

In July 2022, an agreement was reached between Russia and Ukraine on the permission to export grain from Ukraine through the Black Sea, which was mediated by Turkey.

The agreement proved to be an important factor in global food security.

Termination of the agreement could put particular pressure on North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia – the regions most dependent on Ukrainian grain.

The European Union said on Tuesday that it is ready to export almost all Ukrainian agricultural products through “solidarity routes” – rail and road transport links through EU member states bordering Ukraine.

• London warns Russia may target civilian vessels in Black Sea after grain deal ends

“Instrumentalization of the world food supply, a calculated element of the Russian strategy”

In New York, the British ambassador to the UN, Barbara Woodward, told the press that Russia “increased its attacks on grain stocks in Odesa” as well as “all over Ukraine”, including up to the border with Romania, AFP notes.

She condemned the “absurdity” of Moscow’s use of heavy weapons “to destroy food,” seeing in this evidence that “the instrumentalization of the world’s food supply is a calculated element of Russia’s strategy,” which demonstrates that it “does not care about the populations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America who are facing hunger and drought.”

Russia canceled an important agreement that allowed Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea, including to Africa, from the summer of 2022, despite Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports.

During the year, this agreement allowed almost 33 million tons of grain to be shipped from Ukrainian ports, which helped to stabilize world food prices and avoid the risk of shortages.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will begin Thursday in St. Petersburg with a Russia-Africa summit that will be a means of showing understanding, despite the situation in Ukraine and the termination of the grain agreement, which is causing concern among countries on the African continent.

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