​HotNews.ro spoke with two Russian analysts about founder Wagner’s rebellion against Putin to find out how this event, which many consider strange, is interpreted by Moscow experts.

A new mutiny is less likely in the near future, although the consequences of the actions of June 24 include some “split” among the military elites in Moscow, but also the possibility of destabilization. Also, most likely, Wagner’s mercenaries will no longer fight in Ukraine.

These are the conclusions of two Russian experts, Ilya Zhegulev and Michael Komin, with whom HotNews.ro spoke at the end of last week about Yevgeny Prigozhin’s uprising.

Ilya Zhegulev, analyst, Russian Federation: “Never in the history of modern Russia or the Soviet Union did the rebels capture such a large city.”

PHOTO: Screenshot via Zoom

Ilya Zhegulev is the author of the book “The Tsar’s Move” about the struggle for power and influence in Russia. Since 2002, he worked as a reporter and then a columnist in an independent Russian press. Since 2006, he worked for SmartMoney magazine, then Forbes, Meduza and Reuters.

Zhegulev wrote more than 100 feature films and was nominated for the GQ Man of the Year award as the best journalist. He also developed the Bachelor of Journalism curriculum at the Institute of Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow.

“He (Putin – no) was humiliated, even twice. The first time when a huge city was captured, Rostov-on-Don. Never in the history of modern Russia and the Soviet Union have insurgents captured cities of this size.

For the second time, he had to go to “negotiations”, although he always said that he “does not communicate with terrorists”. And he put a sign of equality between Prigozhin and “terrorists”, “traitors”, says the expert.

The Russian analyst also says that Putin feared and rather expected that “public provocation and military rebellion would come from the liberals.”

“I predicted that a possible change of power in Russia could happen only under the conditions in which it would happen now, that is, through an uprising. But at least now I don’t believe in the idea of ​​a revolution. A lot of people follow the news about the state of health of Volodymyr Volodymyrovych (Putin – not),” Ilya Zhegulev also said.

The Russian expert insists that the events that took place on the night of June 24 were organized only by Yevhen Prigozhin, who acted alone, without outside coordination.

“I don’t believe in the conspiracy theory, as if everything is somehow coordinated by the Kremlin. Whatever the outcome, the losses for the Kremlin are too great. I also don’t think that the West decided to rock the boat because of Prigozhin.

Where is Prigozhin, and where is the West? The West declared Prigozhin a criminal long before the Russian authorities.

Putin himself raised such an uncontrolled and equipped person, because he could not imagine that Prigozhin, who was completely obedient, would do this,” claims La Zhegulev, who also says that Prigozhin missed the chance to get a high position in the state.

“Prigogin had or has serious political ambitions to lead the state. He had a unique chance to become the president of our country.

I really believe that Lukashenko was able to convince him not because he is a “hard peacemaker”, but because he declared that the Belarusian army is ready to defend Moscow.

As for the future of Wagner’s company, it is difficult to predict what will happen next. After such a surrender, when the man had every chance, he decided to leave and left his soldiers.

I believe he has lost a lot in terms of reputation in the reception of Wagner’s action films. They were ready to fight to the death, but were abandoned by their commander. I think there might be some decisions about retirement in the army.

These events showed that many were not ready to fight the Wagnerites and respected them. Many soldiers shared Prigozhin’s point of view. I think they will try to change something, but I have great doubts that they will succeed,” said Ilya Zhegulev.

The expert believes that the war in Ukraine will have no effect after these events.

“Regarding the war in Ukraine, I do not think that anything will fundamentally change. The Ministry of Defense is already using Wagner’s methods, including some convicts who are fighting there. But I also don’t think that even with Wagner there were offensive chances (Russia against Ukraine – no),” the analyst added.

Political scientist Michael Komin: “I think that PMK “Wagner” will stop participating in military operations in Ukraine”

PHOTO: Screenshot via Zoom

Michael Komin is a political scientist, former scientific director of the Center for Advanced Management Solutions, Russia.

“I believe that this was an attempt to organize a military rebellion, because the Ministry of Defense of Russia ordered that all military organizations sign contracts with this institution by July 1, otherwise they will be deprived of all social benefits.

Prigozhin understood that he had no other way out. It was the intention to deprive him of Wagner or even eliminate him. The purpose of this rebellion was to attract the attention of the president. Prigozhin did not think that the president would talk about him as a rebel and a traitor to the Motherland.

Because Prigozhin was shocked by the turn of events, the uprising ended so quickly, with unclear agreements. So far, we do not understand what exactly is at the basis of the agreements between Prigozhin and the Kremlin.

I believe that one of his points is that Prigozhin needs to disappear from the public space and stop publishing videos and voice messages that expose the Russian system and especially the Ministry of Defense. I think that Prigozhin also got the opportunity to transfer to Belarus the part of “Wagner”, which remained loyal to him, and to participate in operations, for example, in Africa. “I think that Wagner PMC will stop participating in military operations in Ukraine,” Komin claims.

According to the analyst, both Putin and Prigozhin lost in the events of June 24.

“Before the uprising, I think Prigozhin tried to find a place for himself in the political system, but now there is no point in talking about it. In the current conditions, Prigozhin has no chance of a political career.

I think that in this situation, Putin lost more in the sense that an important part of the elites in Russia, especially the military, understood that in the event of such events as the uprising, the Russian Federation has practically nothing to oppose.

I think the system has shown how fragile it is. In recent days, Putin has been trying to solve the problem by trying to demonstrate that everything went well and that all law enforcement agencies were acting according to plan. But, of course, that was not the case,” says the expert.

According to the political scientist, even if the attempted military coup shook the political system in the Russian Federation quite a bit, then a possible regime change is still far away.

“Since the system has been exposed as vulnerable to attempted insurrection, it has become more likely that some player will try to repeat this experience. Absent these strikes, I think a good part of the Russian elite is still interested in Putin staying in power,” Comin said.

• Read also: HotNews.ro contacted Wagner’s representatives anonymously and found out how mercenaries are recruited and what salary they receive