The failed uprising in Russia showed the risks the Kremlin faces in being prepared to wage a long and exhausting war in Ukraine, even if Kiev’s forces do not take advantage of the chaos unleashed by Prigozhin’s forces on the battlefield over the weekend, a Reuters analysis said. .

Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin’s forces have returned to base after an uprising that began on Friday and was quashed the next day in a deal brokered by the Belarusian president, but many questions remain about the situation.

Current and former officials in Kyiv say the uprising painted a striking picture of the tensions in Russia’s political system and showed that Russia’s reserve forces were so weak that they struggled to respond to the threat.

“Remember the concept of eternal war? I think he’ll have to reconsider that idea.”

“I think they are clearly not in a safe space in terms of continuing the war indefinitely,” Andriy Zahorodnyuk, Ukraine’s defense minister from 2019 to 2020, told Reuters.

“Remember the concept of “eternal war” that appeared in the press? I think he will have to reconsider this idea,” he added.

Zahorodnyuk said that the ease with which Prigozhin’s “Wagner” mercenary forces swept from the south of Russia hundreds of kilometers deep into Moscow, meeting little resistance, was obvious.

“They had to pool their resources to stop them. We saw those resources and they weren’t significant… They basically don’t have a lot of forces left other than what they have at the front right now,” he added.

“Any chaos behind enemy lines is to our advantage”

U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said much remains unclear, including why Russian forces did not do more to stop Wagner’s advance.

A day after Prigozhin was accused of leading the uprising, the Kremlin said he would be allowed to move to Belarus without penalty in exchange for his forces not moving on Moscow. Other details of the agreement are unknown.

Prigozhin, who was once close to Putin and whose fighters played a major role in Russia’s offensive operations in the east, launched a series of fiery verbal attacks on Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and senior military officials. He even denied the justification of the war.

“Any chaos behind enemy lines works in our interests,” said Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba.

But officials in Kyiv warn that even without its elite Wagner fighters, Russia maintains a large army in Ukraine and could recruit more soldiers.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the president of Ukraine, told Reuters that the riots would deal a blow to the morale of Russian troops. “Further demoralization of Russian soldiers and new doubts among clearly humiliated Russian generals will somewhat worsen the quality of defense,” he added.

There doesn’t seem to be any impact on the front end at this time

The unrest in Russia is happening because Moscow’s 16-month-old invasion has no end in sight, and neither side is willing to make concessions.

Ukraine, with the support of the West, is at the initial stage of a long-awaited counteroffensive to win back the occupied territories in the south and east. It states that his main offensive strike has not yet been launched and most of his troops are not engaged.

After several weeks of operations, Kyiv retook a number of villages, although President Zelenskyi admitted that progress was “slower than desired.”

A senior diplomat in central Europe said he did not see an “immediate impact on the war” after Prigozhin’s failed uprising. But the diplomat warned that many questions remained unanswered after the weekend’s events, so it was too early to say anything about the long term. influence.

The Center of National Resistance of the Ukrainian military said that Russia transferred two companies of the 76th Airborne Assault Division from the front to Moscow on Saturday and plans to keep them there for at least a week.

“It should be noted that there is no data on the mass transfer of enemy forces, we are talking about separate units,” he said. Ukraine has not reported any other changes in the position of the Russian army on the battlefield where Moscow’s forces are stationed. had months at their disposal to prepare for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, digging thousands of trenches and laying minefields.

On Sunday, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said that Kyiv’s forces had reloaded in recent days and launched major offensive operations on three main fronts in the south and east. Ukraine silences information from the front.

A senior Ukrainian defense official said on Saturday that Kyiv forces were attacking several districts in the east of the country, gaining ground, although he did not provide further details. According to her, heavy fighting is going on in the south.

Zelensky, who has shown his disdain for Putin in many of his wartime speeches, mocked the “chaos” in Russia, saying it should prompt Russian troops to return home to take care of their own country.

As the unrest grew, Zelensky said Putin looked “very scared” and suggested he was probably hiding. “Today the world sees that the masters of Russia do not control anything. And this is not a small thing. Just complete chaos. lack of any predictability,” he said.

“The Russians are not going anywhere”

The fate of Wagner’s gangs is not yet clear. The mercenary group has proven to be one of Russia’s most effective fighting forces and was instrumental in capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut in April after the longest and bloodiest fighting of the war.

The Kremlin claimed that Wagner’s fighters would not be prosecuted for mutiny in recognition of their past service to Russia, and that those who did not participate could sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense.

Zagorodnyuk said he believed that Russia would most likely integrate the group into existing military units and that the Wagner PMC would cease to exist.

“This is relatively good news. But there will still be many military operations, there will still be a war: the Russians will not go anywhere,” he added.