Forces of the Wagner paramilitary group have begun withdrawing from positions in Russia on the orders of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who turned back after a direct challenge to the authority of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the biggest crisis he has faced in his two decades in power. .

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) comments that Prigozhin most likely perceived the July 1 deadline given by the Russian Ministry of Defense to all irregular armed forces, including Wagner’s group, to sign contracts with the Russian government as “an existential threat to his political but, perhaps personal survival.”

Analysts believe that Wagner’s capture of the military headquarters in Rostov, home to Russia’s Southern Military Command, whose 58th Army is fighting Kiev’s counteroffensive in southern Ukraine, could weaken the Russian army.

The highly strategic territory for Moscow and the infighting between Russia could have far-reaching consequences for the conflict in Ukraine, but Ukrainian officials say the crisis in central Moscow has not led to major changes on the front line, the Financial Times reported, citing Russia. a BBC service.

At the same time, the current situation provides an opportunity to exploit the low morale of the Russian troops and the internal struggle within the system.

“We will certainly make the most of it,” Andrii Chernyak, spokesman for the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine, told the FT.

“We will use it to advantage in the political sphere, in the information sphere, in the military sphere.”

The Ukrainian army is preparing for attacks in depth

Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a multi-pronged offensive on Saturday.

Ukrainian forces have refined their tactics in the first two weeks of their counteroffensive, preparing for deeper attacks on Russian positions, the UK Ministry of Defense said in an assessment on Sunday.

British special services believe that Ukraine is gradually but steadily advancing in tactics in key directions and that the main counteroffensive operations are taking place in three directions in the southern and eastern directions.

Valery Shersen, a spokesman for the Ukrainian army fighting in the country’s southeast, said on Saturday that some positions held by Russian forces since 2014 had been vacated.

The future Wagner

What will happen to Wagner? There is no unequivocal answer to this question yet. Mercenaries who did not take part in the uprising were offered to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense.

But those who participated in the “march of justice” will most likely remain loyal to the founder of Wagner.

According to analysts, Vladimir Putin may decide he needs to keep more troops closer to the Russian capital if Wagner or other similar structures, which are outlawed in Russia, decide to storm Moscow.

However, the removal of the Wagner group from combat, whether temporary or permanent, is unlikely to have a major impact on the balance of power in Russia, according to Rob Lee, a researcher at the US Institute for Foreign Policy Studies.

Yevgeny Prigozhin withdrew his Wagner troops from the front line in early June after they captured the town of Bakhmut.

The Russian army could blame Wagner for losses at the front

In addition, mercenaries are primarily an offensive force, the expert notes. And the Russian military is now on the defensive, and relatively successfully, Lee said.

“We are still waiting for Ukraine to send its reserves into battle, and that could happen next week. The Russian military will almost certainly blame any loss of territory on what Wagner did, and blaming Wagner could be good PR,” Lee said.

Prigozhin’s actions can be expected to further undermine support for the war within Russia among both the military and the civilian population, the FT notes.

Prigozhin, who wields considerable influence through his Telegram channels, challenged two important narratives of Putin’s propaganda with his rebellion.

Putin, a hostage of his own game

On Friday, he argued that Moscow did not start the war at all to “denigrate” or protect the interests of Russian-speaking Ukrainians, and on Saturday he showed that Putin’s power is more fragile than previously thought.

“The big consequence of all this is that the image of a stable system no longer exists,” says Maria Zolkina from the Democratic Initiatives Foundation in Kyiv.

The chaotic reaction of the Russian state demonstrates the true weakness of the authoritarian system, and Putin has become a hostage of his own game, concludes the BBC.