Images of tanks on the streets of Moscow are reminiscent of the last months of the Soviet Union in 1991, he writes Guardian in an analysis that suggests Vladimir Putin looks weaker than at any time since he became president in 2000.

His decision to invade Ukraine turned out to be a major strategic blunder — the biggest of his career — and one that could force his resignation sooner or later. Even if the current insurgency, led by Wagner’s ringleader Yevgeny Prigozhin, quickly collapses, Putin’s image as an iron-fisted leader and his ability to lead will be in doubt and uncertainty.

For months, Yevgeny Prigozhin criticized and criticized the Russian military leadership from all positions and on any occasion. He criticized Defense Minister Serhii Shoigu and Commander-in-Chief Valery Gerasimov, accusing them of incompetence regarding the war in Ukraine.

On Friday night, Prigozhin accused the Moscow military leadership of attacking Wagner’s mercenaries.

Is history repeating itself?

The Prigozhin-Shoigu feud seems real, but in Putin’s opaque system, which does not resemble a Western-style government, it is difficult to understand what is really going on. For more than two decades, Putin has played the role of supreme arbiter, pitting one ambitious faction of the Kremlin against another.

This is the old divide and rule tactic. In the past, Prigozhin proved to be a loyal ally who carried out government tasks, including an attempt to sabotage the 2016 US presidential election.

One interpretation of recent events is that this public crusade by Prigozhin against Shoigu was sanctioned by the man at the top of the pyramid.

The dramatic events of the last 12 hours suggest that any such deal with the Kremlin, if it ever existed, is over. Prigozhin demands no less than the removal of Shoigu and the replacement of the entire General Staff.

In fact, according to a Kremlin source, the Russian presidential administration tried to negotiate with the leader of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, after he called for an uprising against the Russian high command, a Kremlin source said.

Wagner’s armored column entered Russia from occupied Eastern Ukraine without encountering much resistance. Wagner’s forces appear to have seized key buildings in Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District command and the main logistics center for Moscow’s so-called “special military operation.”

The panicked Russian generals called on Prigozhin to resign and cancel his “coup”. Armored vehicles roam the streets of Moscow, which are probably sent to protect the Ministry of Defense and other bureaucratic centers from a possible internal attack.

The extraordinary footage recalls the failed coup in the summer of 1991, staged by the KGB to preserve communist power. All it did was hasten the collapse of the Soviet Union a few months later.

It is too early to say whether history is repeating itself.

A rebellion that further weakens Putin

Prigozhin is not a pacifist. His manifesto is for Russia to fight Ukraine more vigorously, with better decision-making at the highest level, with more integrity, and with fewer soldiers wasted and sacrificed in ill-conceived attacks.

Prigozhin accuses Shoigu of concealing the extent of Russia’s losses. He is also dissatisfied with last year’s withdrawal from Kherson.

Whatever the outcome of the armed uprising that began on Friday, Putin looks weaker than at any time since he became president in 2000.

His decision to invade Ukraine turned out to be a major strategic mistake – the biggest of his career, which sooner or later could force him to leave power.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hold on power has become less secure since the country’s invasion of Ukraine, while there is growing talk of changes in Russia’s elite circles.

Vladimir Putin is portraying the war in Ukraine as a watershed moment when Russia finally stood up to the West, but some in the elite fear he has led his country into a protracted and senseless waste of lives and resources.

Putin spoke on television on Saturday morning after Prigozhin’s rebellion began. He accused the rebels of treason and introduced an “anti-terror” regime in Moscow.

Even if the uprising fails quickly, the ripples will continue for months, fueling political instability and raising doubts about Putin’s ability to lead.

All this opens up significant and exciting opportunities for Ukraine. Wagner’s troops were based in the occupied Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Some of them left in the last day and returned to Russia. According to preliminary data, Ukrainian troops returned several destroyed streets in Bakhmut, where a bloody battle had been raging for months.

Prigozhin’s separate army, formed from volunteers and released convicts, turned out to be a more disciplined and combat-capable military formation than the regular Russian army. Now he disappears from the scene and turns his attention to Russia itself.

Russian officials demanded that Putin be indicted

Three months after Vladimir Putin’s bloody “special operation” in Ukraine, his people in the Kremlin are already discussing who will replace him, Meduza’s sources close to the Russian president report.

Deputies of the Smolninsky municipality in St. Petersburg last year appealed to the State Duma of the Russian Federation with a motion to impeach Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to the document, in the war started by Vladimir Putin on February 24, “capable parts” of the Russian army are being destroyed, “capable youth, citizens of Russia” are being killed, the country’s economy is suffering, the length of Russia’s border with NATO countries is doubling, and Ukraine is getting new weapons, albeit one one of the goals of the “special military operation” was the “demilitarization” of the country.

The document also states that the Russian president’s decision to launch a “military special operation harms the security of Russia and its citizens.”

“In this regard, we ask you, as deputies of the State Duma, to make a proposal to charge the President of the Russian Federation with treason with the aim of removing him from office,” the appeal reads.