You know the story: the PNL pretends to be fed up with Nikušor Dan, who no longer has much electoral traction among the people of Bucharest, but partly because the party has constantly attacked him – for example, through the mayor of District 6, Ciprian Chucu, who until a few months ago was the head of the PNL of Bucharest – with almost the same intensity with which he attacked Clotilde Armand, the mayor of sector 1, who was like a bone in the throat of them and the pesedists.

Therefore, Nikushor Dan (seems) no longer has the political support of the PNL – which, as I explained to you, is an understatement, because the analysis of events shows us that he actually did not have it, among other things because he did not, he did not agreed to accept the political conditions put forward by the panelists – and he himself.

In general, in any case, in local elections, mayors or candidates for the position of general or head of the sector stand on their own, and the connection with the party sometimes brings certain votes or, on the contrary, can steal votes by associating the candidate with a bad image of the party.

The CURS public opinion poll for the municipality of Bucharest, the results of which were published in April this year, gives us some clues, but it depends on how we read them, for example: (i) the PSD-PNL joint candidate is likely to get around 46% of the vote and would win the local elections in Bucharest by a margin; (ii) if PSD and PNL run their own candidates, PSD has a better chance of winning because the distance is 12 percentage points; (iii) if the PNL were to unite with the USR, they would have a chance to outvote the PSD in mayoral seats; (iv) USR, PMP and Forța Dreptei will start with a dowry of 24% if combined for Bucharest; (v) AUR is as highly regarded in Bucharest as it is nationally, and can spring surprises – most importantly, it will have a constant number of advisers in the General Council and in the sectors.

But what do we know about Nikusor Dan? We don’t know what the voting intentions are for him, we only know that as mayor-general he has a less good image in the eyes of the voters than on average (we don’t know how much this helps the analysis, really) sector mayors: (i) believe 30% of voters Hello the activity of the general mayor compared to 40% when it comes (on average, let’s not forget) to branch mayors; (ii) 46% of voters think so stupid and 11% very stupid activities of the general mayor, and in the case of sectors 35% stupid and 5% very stupid.

Looking at the CURS numbers and recalling the public criticism of the Mayor General, some justified, I would say that Nikushor Dan is paying for broken pots, and thanks to his communication policy with extremely bad valences, he will continue to do so throughout 2023, which can cost him the election in 2024.

In the sectors, we now have two USR mayors – Clotilde Armand, Sector 1 and Rada Mihaya, Sector 2; PNL Mayor Ciprian Chuku, whom I mentioned, in Sector 6; PSD Mayor in District 4 – Daniel Beluce; Robert Sorin Negoitse in Sector 3, candidate of Pro Bucharest – the alliance of his party, Bucharest 2020 and Pro Romania.

In Sector 5, as we know, we don’t have a mayor (anymore), since, although the position was left vacant after the imprisonment of Cristian Popescu Piedone, the government did not organize an election (although it was obliged to do so by law); The position is temporarily held by the vice-mayor Mircea-Horatsiou Nicolaidis, elected on the lists of the same party as Popescu Piedone, namely the Humanist Power Party, created by Dan Voiculescu.

Admittedly, the government’s attitude to the problem in Sector 5 is a worrying symptom, and we can ask what exactly lies in the middle: (i) Dan Voiculescu’s authority to demand that the PSD and PNL do not violate his position as the mayor of this sector. office, (ii) the ruling coalition’s clear disdain for electoral law and interest in the status quo or (iii) fear that the election will not lead to the USR third mayor’s sectors? Thus, we pose the first big question mark in this analysis.

And if we come to the formulation of questions, the second one is similar to Nikusor Dan’s question: are the people of Bucharest ready to go again with PSD and Gabriela Firea next year? Because it’s clear that as we head into 2024 and then into the election campaign, the Dan vs. Fier fight seems to be taking center stage.

And the third question, now more theoretical, but who knows how events will develop in a year: is the PSD – PNL – Nikushor Dan struggle and the failure of the USR (still an immature party, unfortunately) due to creating a coalition for Bucharest[4] and/or continue to support Nikusor Dan for a second term, pave the way for AUR’s surprise victory in Bucharest?

In my opinion, if a populist and extremist party wins even the seat of mayor of a sector in Bucharest in 2024, it will be a major defeat for Romanian democracy, pointing to the undesirable prospect of sliding at the national level towards the illiberalism of neighbors Viktor Orbán and FIDESZ.

WHAT WILL VOTERS SAY ABOUT THE BATTLE OF SPECIFIC PROJECTS?

The Romanian mole doesn’t just have to explode every four years when the popcorn pops out of the microwave, because we’re not going to get very far that way; The lesson of 2017-2018, with massive street demonstrations against Liviu Dragnius’s PSD plans, should serve us well, to show us where we will end up if we are not careful with responsible participation in the electoral process.

Do you still remember characters like Krin Halaika, Victor Chorbea, Viorel Lis, Adrian Videanu, Sorin Oprescu…? All of them were general heads of the capital and the post-December period of the city’s sad memory can be associated with each of them. Gabriela Firea, during two mandates of the Mayor General, led the Ministry of Family, Youth and Equal Opportunities in the same way as she does now[5]that is, as a slightly larger Volunteer[6].

This is not to say that other mayors-general like Traian Basescu, Rezvan Murgeanu or Nikushor Dan have somehow broken the market, but it is as if we can invent a separate category for them as those who are more active in solving big problems. problems of Bucharest, just as there is a category of mayors inherited from communism: Dan Predescu[7]Ștefan Ciurel, Viorel Oproiu or Doru Viorel Pană.

But what do we, citizens, want, how do we see the city we live in after 2024? Because if we have no idea about the future of our city, then it is obvious that the demands we make to the mayors will be the fruit of fleeting humors and we will end up voting for mayors as suggested by television and the interests of their owners or our social circles in network, if nothing else, for reasons of convenience and irresponsibility, we prefer not to vote directly.

Civic responsibility means voting for a professional and honest person who proves his integrity through the portfolio of feasible projects he proposes, the quality of the team he presents to us, and the consistency of the dialogue with citizens for which he asks them to vote.

Responsibility and seriousness as voters should lead us to reject any excesses of candidates: political gossip and mania for personal attacks, flagrant nationalisms, pompous and clearly detached from reality statements, weakness of general education and awareness of administration, etc.

If we do that, we won’t have to put on fireworks every four years, or worse, after the election is over, we’ll find we’ve elected a totally unqualified person into office who feels free to run the city as he pleases, like we like it or not, because “that’s how it’s democratic.”

I have at least a year to build a portrait of the ideal candidate for general and sectoral mayor who I would vote for with all my heart, and I will apply this grid to all candidates who will participate in the election race. It may seem like a time-consuming process, but it is far from it, besides, it gives me satisfaction that I am not in a hurry to vote, that I do not make rash decisions, that I do what is in my interests and that of the community.

What do I want, in short, from a mayoral candidate? To be a serious person who does not speak much, and when he does speak, he refers to essential things, which he explains in a reasonable and clear manner, to be an experienced professional, not an erudite, not to advertise ideas that he does not possess, and with nauseating populisms.

I want from the mayor master plans to improve transport in Bucharest – radial roads, city trains, electric buses, new trams, cycle paths and spacious promenades, well-maintained parks, transport in Dambovitsa, modern development of the Vacareşti delta and accelerated reconstruction of the heating network where appropriate, as well as the search for alternative solutions, including green energy.

I would like the general mayor’s office and district mayor’s offices to join forces to build a thermal power plant that burns garbage, as it exists in Vienna or Copenhagen, for example. And I don’t want donuts to be sold on this topic, as we saw with Daniel Beluce, who wanted a local referendum to place such a plant on the CTE Progresu platform[8]thus needlessly warning the population for reasons beyond my understanding[9].

I would like the branch mayors to be more and more involved in investment projects with European funds, and less in planting palm trees; and when it came to palm trees, I try to understand Robert Negoitz, who, on the one hand, invests useful funds in the optimization of traffic through the accelerated construction of bridges and road crossings, after which he proves some infantile solutions, such as copying the projects of a colleague from sector 4[10]or buy a few hundred palm trees to plant in Bucharest (he probably likes the thick shade of a palm tree).

Ciprian Chuku tried to be accredited in the interview[11] the idea that there should be alternatives to the competition between Nikusor Dan and Gabriela Firea, who are currently considered the main candidates for the seat of mayor general:

“From my point of view, if we look at the sociological research a little bit, we will see that the two big candidates that are being talked about, Nikusor Dan and Gabriela Firea, have a lot of hatred, that is, indifference, or how to say. that is, negative attachment. A lot, a lot. Both over 65%, even over 70% both.

In this context, a competent, honest candidate would have some chances, because it will be played either between two, and it will be played, who can teach more people to come to vote, here it will be played, Bucharest is usually on the right side, and an honest, competent candidate may appear, who has shown that he knows how to lead, how to do something, and can beat both.”

The mayor of sector 6 hinted in his interview that he may take part in the election race for the position of mayor general and will have a chance to win both, provided that the electorate (on the right, clarifies his lordship) comes to vote.

I keep the idea of ​​mobilizing for the vote because it is important both for the local elections in 2024 and for the other rounds of elections next year, but I make one more addition that does not necessarily favor the candidacy of Mr. Chuka: candidate integrity, professional and mandatory ‘necessarily with a sustainable and necessary list of projects for Bucharest (or at the sector level) is the one who should win next year’s local elections. Read the whole article and comment on Contributors.ro