A US Defense Department report released in November said Beijing could have 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, and any future US commitment to nuclear disarmament would depend on China, a senior US official said. At the same time, Washington does not ignore Russia.

“We would be willing to abide by restrictions and engage in a disarmament regime beyond 2026, but the key variable will be the nature of our (information) exchange with China at that time,” a senior White House official said. AFP and News.ro agencies.

He, who spoke to the press on the condition of anonymity, said that at the same time the United States is keeping an eye on Russia, which has suspended its participation in the New Treaty on Nuclear Disarmament of the SNO, the last bilateral treaty this year. the type that binds two former rivals during the Cold War. This agreement expires in 2026.

The United States is “open” to an “unconditional” dialogue with Moscow on nuclear weapons, the quoted source said, stressing that the Americans still expect “a certain level of reciprocity” from the Russians. However, the US State Department announced on Thursday “countermeasures” in response to Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in the treaty. Thus, the US will limit the exchange of information with Russia regarding its nuclear arsenal.

But on nuclear issues, as in all its other diplomatic activities, the United States is focused primarily on China, which is rapidly developing its arsenal, a senior White House official said. “The size of their arsenal, the nature of their forces and other changes in their policies will have an impact on our own position in the future,” he stressed. It will also have consequences for the position of Russia, which will then have consequences for the position of France and Great Britain. “Everything is very connected,” the official said. He assured that the Biden administration, although it assumes the logic of rivalry with China, nevertheless signaled to Beijing about its “availability” and “interest” in discussions about nuclear weapons.

Relations between the two superpowers are very tense, despite hopes for a “thaw” recently expressed by US President Joe Biden. China, for example, recently refused the invitation of the US to a meeting of the defense ministers of the two countries.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), China has an arsenal of 350 nuclear warheads, far behind Russia (4,477) and the United States (3,708). But Beijing could have 1,500 warheads by 2035, according to a US Defense Department report released in November.

The United States has become more alert to the Chinese “threat” following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an invasion that has not “distracted” Washington from its growing rivalry with Beijing, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on Friday. “Our support for Ukraine has not weakened our ability to respond to a potential threat from China or elsewhere, on the contrary, it has strengthened it,” he said in a speech in Helsinki.

The statements preceded a speech by White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on Friday on nuclear disarmament.

The US wants China to be involved in nuclear disarmament talks

Jake Sullivan largely confirmed what the White House spokesman had previously explained. The United States is committed to dialogue with Russia, but also with China, on nuclear weapons without preconditions, the national security adviser said in a speech in which he outlined the US approach to reducing the risk of nuclear conflict.

According to CNN, Sullivan also said that the US is working in parallel to modernize its nuclear forces, but not to increase its arsenal.

Friday’s speech came in a context where the nuclear arms control architecture is facing serious threats. Sullivan warned that the world had reached an “inflection point” in terms of nuclear stability.

“We are entering a new era that requires new strategies and solutions to achieve the goals we have always had: prevent an arms race, reduce the risk of misperception and escalation, and most importantly, we guarantee the security of our people and people around the world in the face of a nuclear threat,” Sullivan told the Arms Control Association on Friday.

Even as China increases its nuclear arsenal, Sullivan said the U.S. should not engage in an arms race with Beijing.

“The United States does not need to increase its nuclear forces to exceed the total number of our competitors in order to successfully deter them,” Sullivan said, adding that the United States would adhere to the limits on nuclear warheads agreed to by the United States and Russia “as long as Russia does.”

However, Sullivan did not rule out that this estimate could change. “We believe that in the current context, we have the number and type of capabilities that we need today. I cannot speak for every context and contingency in the future. But in the current context, we believe we have what it takes,” Sullivan said.

He noted that China’s opaque nuclear development will determine what any future deal with Russia on nuclear weapons will look like. “The size and scope of China’s nuclear build-up will affect what limits the United States will be able to agree to after the treaty expires,” Sullivan said.

What does the modernization of US nuclear weapons entail

On U.S. efforts to modernize its nuclear forces, Sullivan said the goal is to keep the deterrent arsenal secure and strong until the 2030s, when the United States estimates it will have to face two near-equal nuclear powers for the first time in history. stories.

He explained that updating US deterrence plans builds on ongoing efforts to modernize “every component” of the US nuclear triad, as well as investments in non-nuclear capabilities, such as space and cyber tools, that give the US an “everywhere edge.” “.

The US is also committed to preventing nuclear conflicts across the board, both with allies and adversaries. While there are agreements with the five nuclear-weapon states — the US, Russia, China, Britain and France, known collectively as the P5 — Sullivan called the agreements “limited,” saying more could be done.

“The Five provide an opportunity to manage nuclear risk and the pressure of the arms race through a combination of dialogue, transparency and agreements,” Sullivan said, adding that the US would work to establish new norms and values ​​in the new nuclear era.

As for China, the communist country has so far rejected regular diplomatic interaction with the US in a broad sense, including in the area of ​​arms control. Sullivan said it would be a “responsible” step and a “bold decision” for Beijing to come to the negotiating table.

“We hope that among the topics on the diplomatic table, Beijing will be ready to include meaningful interaction on strategic nuclear issues, which would be beneficial for the security of both our countries and the security of the world,” Sullivan said.

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