NATO she is running with time so as not to find herself in a difficult position by missing her July 11th admission deadline. Sweden in the Alliance, CNN reports in its analysis.

Both Sweden and its neighbor Finland announced their intention to join NATO last May, just weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Finland managed to join last April, doubling the Alliance’s border with Russia, but the road to Sweden is still closed.

It is widely accepted that the Swedish armed forces are compatible with NATO. The Nordic country has a permanent representation in the Alliance and is considered a close partner, which means that joining should be a relatively simple matter.

But the problem in this case is Turkey, which continues to block Sweden’s accession because it claims, among other things, that Stockholm allows members of recognized Kurdish terrorist groups to operate in Sweden. Sweden, for its part, earlier in 2023 changed its anti-terrorism legislation to make membership in the aforementioned groups a crime, although it remains unclear whether Ankara would consider the move sufficient.

Turkey also claims that the Swedish government is responsible for far-right protests in which people burned copies of the Koran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm.

Finally, Erdogan’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the desire of the former to be friends with the latter cause concern. Shortly after his re-election, Erdogan told CNN that he and Putin have a “special relationship.”

Deadline July 11 and rates

NATO officials, as well as Swedish government officials, fear that if the July 11 deadline is missed, it will send a dangerous signal to the alliance’s rivals, which include Russia, North Korea and China.

“If lost [η προθεσμία], it will send a signal to people like Putin that there is a weak link in the Western Alliance. This gives them time and space to create problems,” a NATO diplomat told CNN. “It could be cyberattacks, funding and encouraging more [διαδηλώσεων] burning the Quran to cause a split in Sweden.”

A diplomat from Eastern Europe told CNN that such a delay, in addition to “strengthening NATO’s enemies,” would also give the impression that Erdogan has special power in the Alliance.

Officials in most NATO countries are optimistic that a deal can be reached by the end of July, but they also know that there will likely be a price to pay.

Many officials point to how Erdogan struck a deal with the European Union in which Turkey received billions of euros – among other benefits – in exchange for hosting Syrian refugees bound for Europe.

Erdogan, as European officials have repeatedly said, knew that Brussels was “in the palm of his hand” because he could effectively “flood” Europe with refugees at any time.

Transaction price and F-16

But what, in this case, could NATO allies give Erdogan to change his mind about joining Sweden?

It is a fact that Turkey wants the purchase of US F-16s to be approved by Congress, and while US officials seem reluctant to openly link the issue to Sweden’s NATO membership, there are those who claim that this is clearly behind it. scenario. scenes of such an agreement.

Diplomatically, the Turkish economy is known to be in a tough spot due to soaring inflation, the depreciation of the Turkish lira against the dollar, and sanctions imposed by both the US and the EU. in Ankara.

While there is room for a deal – and NATO allies who want Sweden to join have significant influence – there are two issues that could see the 11 July deadline pass and the Alliance not get what it wants. .

The first concerns how unpredictable Erdoğan can become, as some NATO allies fear he could further strengthen his anti-Swedish stance after his re-election. The second question concerns the fact that Turkey is not the only obstacle to the Swedish accession process, since Hungary has also expressed objections.

So while it may seem unimportant exactly when Sweden joins, Turkey’s stance could give NATO’s enemies the sense that some member states may distance themselves from the rest, disrupting the months of good work that have brought the Alliance closer than ever in modern history.

^{Source: CNN}