Will he be re-elected Recep Tayyip Erdogan will lead to better international relations Türkiyeanalyzes the head of correspondents The newspaper “New York Times in Europe, Stephen Erlanger.

Erdogan is the main obstacle for her Sweden’s entry into NATO after Russian invasion of Ukraine. His vehement opposition to Sweden’s NATO membership is over. important role in the election campaign campaign, as well as his mediation between Moscow and Kiev, maintaining good relations with both Russia, same with her Ukraine.

According to the NYT analyst, Erdogan is expected to follow the same path: at home, he will maintain a tough stance, while abroad he will continue to balance between NATO allies and his economic dependence on Russia.

Erdogan “feels freer” after the victory. Therefore, he can move towards improving his relations with the US, but also to approve the entry of Sweden into NATO, as he has already done with Finlandperhaps even before the alliance’s annual summit in July.

For its part, the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, will visit Sweden and Finland this week. These visits are aimed at sending a clear message to Ankara.

Sweden’s entry into NATO could benefit Erdogan: he could unblock him sale of American F-16s and modernization of old models which Turkey already has. Those sales have been blocked by Congress, where many lawmakers are outraged by Erdogan’s ties to Russia, the purchase of Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft system, and the crackdown on dissent at home.

“His victory is of particular importance for Turkish society, but does not cause concern for international relations,” he said. Jan LesserTurkey Specialist, Germaniko Office Director Marshall Foundation in Brussels. “I don’t see a deterioration in an already troubled relationship,” he adds.

The NYT analysis, after pointing to Turkey’s importance as a NATO member, notes how unpredictable and authoritarian Erdogan is, even as he relies on Russia for energy, trade and the strengthening of the Turkish lira.

He recalls that he refused to impose sanctions against Moscow or Vladimir Putin, unlike the Western allies. At the same time, however, Türkiye provided Ukraine military drones and it played an important role in the export agreement Ukrainian grain. Ankara was also the first host of the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Military occupation in part northern Syria it also worries the allies. While Turkish troops protected some groups of Syrian dissidents, Erdogan simultaneously began rapprochement with the Syrian president. Bashar al-Assad.

Erdogan wants his help to deter them Kurdsbut also open the way back approx. 4 million Syrian refugeeswhich Türkiye accepts in the name of Islamic solidarity.

Turkish president may disappoint those who hope for more western Türkiye, especially at a time when he is not the only ally who is becoming more and more authoritarian. OUR Hungary And Serbia do the same and Polandalthough strongly anti-Russian, it undermines the rule of law, the independence of the judiciary and freedom of the press.

Erdogan’s re-election “will open up a broader conversation about how we work with allies and strategic partners with whom we have a deteriorating relationship, and Turkey will not be alone,” Mr. Lesser said. “Europe must find new ways to work more effectively with local communities,” he added.

This Turkish retreat from democratic values ​​and the rule of law means zero progress on the -already frozen- Ankara is in talks to join the EU

OUR Natalie Tochiits director Institute of International Relations of Italystressed that “this is a kind of relief – the victory of the opposition will mean that Brussels will have to take Turkey’s accession negotiations, including the revision of customs and visa agreements, more seriously.”

Household needs can affect them Geopolitical steps of Erdogan. OUR inflation remains persistently high, and increased public spending ahead of the elections exacerbates the pressure.

OUR Emre Pekerwho studies Turkey for Eurasia Groupbelieves Erdogan will harden his stance at home to limit opposition dynamics ahead of next year’s local elections. “Economic difficulties mean Mr. Erdogan will be more careful abroad,” he said, adding: “He can’t afford it if the wheels come off.”

OUR Mark special.a former US defense secretary, said Turkey’s green light for Sweden would be the key to improving relations.

eVelin Farkasformer official Pentagon and now its executive director McCain Institutesaid: “If Sweden is not admitted as soon as possible, this will weaken our strong reaction to Russian aggression, and Putin will take this as a victory.”