Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has set his sights on extending his rule by a third decade in today’s second round of elections, trending in his favor in the second round after beating Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in the first round.

Erdogan, already backed by the parliamentary majority that won over the AKP and its allies on May 14, received another boost from the backing of the nationalist politician who came third in the first round.

The elections come three months after the earthquakes in southeastern Turkey that killed more than 50,000 people.

The elections will decide not only who will lead Turkey, but also how it will be governed, where its economy and foreign policy will go. Kiliçdaroglu, backed by another far-right leader, supports a six-party alliance, including his Republican People’s Party (CHP).

As modern Turkey’s longest-serving leader, Erdogan championed religious piety and low interest rates at home, while bolstering Turkish influence in the region and weakening NATO’s ties to the West.

The elections come three months after the earthquakes in southeastern Turkey that killed more than 50,000 people.

Rates inside

Erdogan and his party, the most powerful leader since the founding of the modern Turkish Republic by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk a century ago, led Turkey away from the “father of the Turks” secular plan.

Its supporters say it protects citizens from security threats such as the 2016 coup attempt.

Erdogan has also centered power around the executive president, based in a 1,000-room palace in Ankara, who determines policy regarding Turkey’s economy, security, domestic and international affairs.

Erdogan’s critics say his government is cracking down on dissent, restricting rights and subjugating the judiciary. Its supporters deny the charge, saying it protects citizens from security threats, including the 2016 coup attempt.

Economists say Erdogan’s calls for low interest rates have pushed inflation to a 24-year high of 85% last year, and the lira has fallen to a tenth of its value against the dollar over the past decade.

Betting abroad

Under Erdogan, Turkey has built up military power in the Middle East and beyond, launching four incursions into Syria, launching offensives against Kurdish militants in Iraq, and sending military support to Libya and Azerbaijan.

Conflict diplomacy, proximity to Putin, NATO and the Ukrainian grain deal.

Turkey has also faced a number of diplomatic skirmishes with regional powers including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, as well as standoffs with Greece and Cyprus over the maritime boundaries of the eastern Mediterranean, which remained unchanged two years ago. and sought rapprochement with some of these countries.

Moscow’s purchase of defense systems has prompted sanctions from the US military industry against Ankara, and its closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin has led critics to question Turkey’s commitment to NATO’s Western defense alliance. Ankara’s objections to Sweden’s and Finland’s claims of NATO membership also heightened tensions.

However, Turkey brokered a deal to export Ukrainian wheat, pointing to Erdogan’s potential role in efforts to end the war in Ukraine. It is unclear whether his successor will enjoy the same prestige he created on the world stage.

Opposition Promises

The two main opposition parties, the secular CHP and the centre-right nationalist Good Party (IYI), have teamed up with four smaller parties in a platform aimed at repealing many of Erdogan’s policies.

The Six pledged to restore central bank independence and reverse Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies. They will also abolish the executive power of the president in favor of the former parliamentary system and repatriate Syrian refugees.

Analysts believe that the policy promised by the opposition could stimulate foreign investment.

They also aim to improve relations with Western allies, including the US, and return Turkey to the F-35 fighter program, from which it was excluded after buying Russian anti-missile systems.

Analysts believe that the policy promised by the opposition could stimulate foreign investment.

Erdogan has backed failed attempts to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad while taking in at least 3.6 million Syrian refugees who are becoming increasingly unwelcome at a time of economic hardship in Turkey.

Seeking support from nationalist voters, Kılıçdaroğlu has stepped up his anti-immigrant tone over the past two weeks and vowed to repatriate migrants.

What about candidate rankings

Kilicdaroglu scored 44.9% in the first round compared to Erdogan’s 49.5%, reflecting stable support despite a deep cost-of-living crisis and polls showing Kilicdaroglu ahead. Sociologists later cited the unexpected spike in support for the Nationalists in the elections to explain the result.

The role of the PKK and Kurds in Turkey.

Erdogan said a vote in his favor would ensure stability once his alliance wins a parliamentary majority.

Turkey’s four decades of conflict with the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) also entered the campaign, along with the role of the mainstream Kurdish political parties.

Although not part of the opposition alliance, the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) is strongly opposed to Erdogan after the crackdown on its members in recent years and supports Kilicdaroglu.

Erdoğan’s attacks on Kilicdaroğlu included unsubstantiated accusations that he enlisted the support of the PKK, which has been involved in an insurgency since the 1980s that has killed more than 40,000 people. Kılıçdaroğlu denied the allegations.

Source: Reuters.