Recent Ukrainian raid on Belgorod from the south Russia near the border of two countries, can force Kremlin to withdraw some troops from the front line while Kyiv prepares for a counteroffensive, and could also deal a significant psychological blow to Moscow, military analysts say.

While Kiev denies any involvement in the aforementioned attacks, it is almost certain that Ukraine’s largest cross-border raid since the Russian invasion was staged by groups within the Ukrainian armed forces and is setting the stage for an attempt to reclaim the territory, experts say. .

“Ukrainians are trying to scatter Russians in different directions in order to create gaps. The Russians are forced to send reinforcements,” said Neil Melvin, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute.

The Ukrainian side says it plans to launch a large-scale counter-offensive to regain control of Russian-held territories, but Russia has been put on high alert by building vast fortifications in eastern and southern Ukraine.

Ukrainian attacks in Belgorod took place far from the focus of hostilities in the east of Donbass and about 160 kilometers from the front line in the north of Kharkiv.

“They should respond to this by deploying troops on the spot and along the border, although, most likely, the Ukrainians are not coming from there,” Melvin notes. For its part, the U.S. says it “does not facilitate or encourage” Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, but emphasizes that how Ukrainians fight is up to Kiev itself.

There have been several such operations across Russia in recent months, and while this week’s raid was the largest, it remains minor compared to front-line fighting.

Operation “Reshaping” the battlefield

Aleksei Baranovsky, a spokesman for the political arm of the Russian Legion for Freedom, told Reuters there were no serious casualties and called Russia’s claims of many deaths disinformation.

It is noted that the aforementioned paramilitary group, together with the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps, claimed responsibility for the attacks in Belgorod.

Baranovsky said his group was part of the Ukrainian armed forces, but denied that the raid was coordinated with Ukrainian authorities.

“These are the first steps towards achieving the main goal – the overthrow of the Putin regime with the help of weapons. There are no other options,” he said.

Mark Galeotti, head of London-based consultancy Mayak Intelligence, says the Belgorod raid looks like a Ukrainian operation to rebuild the battlefield ahead of a spring counteroffensive.

“This is an opportunity to do two things. One of them is to force the Ukrainians to make Russia worry about the possibility of an uprising among its citizens. But at the second level, they can also force Russian troops to disperse, ”the expert explains.

Melvin, for his part, notes that this operation could also boost Ukrainian morale.

Memories from 2014

Officials in Kyiv “copied” the Kremlin’s rhetoric regarding the annexation of Crimea in 2014, as Moscow initially denied that the troops involved were Russian.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said “underground rebel groups” made up of Russian civilians were responsible for the raid on Belgorod and said, “As you know, tanks are sold in every military store in Russia.”

The comment turned out to be a reference to Putin’s statement in 2014, when asked about the presence in Crimea of ​​men in Russian army uniforms without insignia: “Everyone can go to the store and buy any uniform they want.”

On social media, Ukrainians have spoken of the “Belgorod People’s Republic,” referring to the events that took place in eastern Ukraine in 2014, when Russian-backed militias declared Donetsk and Luhansk regions to be Ukraine’s “people’s republics.”

Ukrainians also released a famous video of Zelensky in Kyiv saying “I’m here” at the start of the invasion in February 2022, but instead of the president’s office in Kiev, there was a welcome sign in the city of Belgorod in the background.

^{Source: Reuters.}