Nearly 15 months after the largely inconclusive Russian military invasion of Ukraine, their tactics are changing and adapting to the demands of this war with significant improvement, a British study published in The Economist notes, but the Ukrainians are still able to prevail. Earth.

A study published by Jack Watlin and Nick Reynolds of London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute shows how Russian tactics have evolved. They point to several areas where changes have taken place, many of which will pose a serious threat to Ukraine’s counterattack plans.

“One-shot” commands

The most important is the basic infantry tactics. Russia started the war using tactical battalion groups built of about 800 men, theoretically equipped with armored vehicles, artillery and air defenses. They were extremely weak.

Since then, this has changed. Russia is now sending small “disposable” infantry detachments, a handful at a time, often under the influence of amphetamines, for “fight… to the death”. This is not a big attack, but rather a decoy that reveals the positions of the Ukrainians, who are also wasting ammunition.

Large groups of better trained infantry then attack, supported by armored vehicles, mortars and artillery. If the position is taken, it is strengthened within 12 hours.

“The speed with which the Russian infantry digs in and improves combat positions is amazing,” the authors of the study note. who traveled to Ukraine and interacted with Ukrainian officials. Russian engineers were especially good at building fortifications, building bridges and laying mines. In some areas, defensive fortifications reach a depth of up to 30 kilometers.

At the same time, Russian artillery is also being improved. Although the rate of fire is reduced, the Russian artillery is more accurate. Unmanned reconnaissance is also becoming more effective, allowing drones to hit Ukrainian targets within three to five minutes of detection. This is facilitated by the growing use of the Sagittarius system, a small computer that links drones and ground sensors to artillery mounts.

Traps

Another common tactic for Russians now is to withdraw after occupying territory in order to lure Ukrainians there and turn them against them, as if into a trap.

The armored forces are also pursuing a new strategy: instead of hitting Ukrainian positions quickly and powerfully, they prefer to shoot from a safe distance, improving their camouflage against thermal detection by fighting in the early morning or evening.

According to Western and Ukrainian officials, one of the most important aspects of the conflict is electronic warfare, where Russian adaptation and improvement has been most impressive. Russia has developed large electronic warfare systems on every 10-kilometer front. They mainly target drones and are very helpful: Ukraine loses 10,000 drones a month, the study says, or more than 300 losses every day.

Russia’s air defenses, which were ridiculed last year, have also been beefed up. Communication between these units is getting better, allowing them to exchange data on incoming threats and thus shoot down a significant percentage of missiles.

These findings may give the impression that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is doomed. Although this is far from the truth. The bottom line, the authors of the study conclude, is not so much in new weapons as in smart tactics: “If Ukraine can damage Russian defenses and impose a dynamic environment on it, Russian units are likely to quickly lose coordination.”

The Ukrainians say that getting around the defenses and exploiting the gaps will require the right basics: a supply of spare parts for any equipment coming from the West, instructions translated into Ukrainian, and good drills ahead of time.

On May 14, British intelligence reported that Russian forces in Ukraine likely lacked “a large, capable, mobile reserve to meet the challenges ahead.” Russia’s defense system has improved a lot, but it is still fragile and Ukrainians can still beat it.

Source: Economist.