With today’s pivotal ballot box and the correlations that will result from citizen voting, as well as the “next day” of investigative orders and the new pre-election period everyone expects to follow, the ND is moving forward. , SYRIZA and PASOK. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has repeatedly pointed out that today’s results will largely determine the outcome of the match on July 2, and both Koumunduru and Harilaou Trikoupi agree with this. As a result, party headquarters are developing favorable and … less favorable options for the outcome of today’s vote.

New Elbow for N.D.

At the beginning of the pre-election period in Megaro Maximos, ND considered this a positive scenario. get close to 33%-34% to have a satisfactory “water mark” to achieve self-reliance in the July 2 showdown with the new electoral law. However, in light of the latest wave of opinion polls, the target has actually been revised upwards, with some at Maxim’s Palace feeling that N.D. it may exceed 35% and essentially lock into a new four-year term.

Additional benefits for the ruling party from today’s vote could include:

• A net difference of more than five percentage points from SYRIZA. In such a case, the demobilization of the latter’s electoral base is considered a possible event, paving the way for Mr. Mitsotakis to independence.

• PASOK limit to percentages below 10%. Then, Nikos Androulakis is estimated to bypass the process of investigative orders, giving Mr. Mitsotakis the opportunity to avoid a possible game with accusations that the country will be headed towards a second election campaign.

• One or more smaller parties must rise to the 3% threshold and enter parliament. Everyone assumes that the dilemmas will be stronger in the new elections, the “small” ones will put pressure on them, and, as you know, the higher the percentage of non-parliamentary parties, the lower the level of self-reliance will be.

Purpose N.D. has been revised down and some at Maximos are hoping it could go over 35%.

From the above parameters of a positive scenario for Megaro Maximos, of course, the risks of today’s vote for ND follow: a percentage below 33% for ND, an advantage or a slight difference from SYRIZA and the prospect of a six-party or seven-party parliament will make it difficult for the Prime Minister to maneuver.

SYRIZA and 2019

Kumunduru believes that a party of undecideds and participation – mostly young voters – can turn the image of the pre-election period during the poll results and put SYRIZA in first place. In this case, Alexis Tsipras will have the absolute initiative of the movements, both during the pre-orders starting from tomorrow, and – if they turn out to be inconclusive – on the way to new elections. However, the “victory” of the official opposition party will be considered by Kumundura, and the difference – by ND. less than three percentage points. As they say, in this case, SYRIZA will enter the new pre-election period with a stronger momentum, while it will be able to exert electoral pressure, arguing that only it can achieve the goal of “political changes”, like PASOK and also KKE and MeRA25. At the same time, SYRIZA representatives add that if the difference between the two main parties is around 4%, then “everyone will be … winners”, and if it is more, then there will be problems for Kumunduru. It will also be critical:

• To what extent from the arithmetic of the places of today’s result, and if SYRIZA is not the first, will there be scenarios that have been discussed recently – the government of losers, tolerance or a special goal – and the manipulations that it will carry out during the exploratory process of elections, Alexis Tsipras .

• If the SYRIZA percentage is preceded by a figure of 3. In the 2019 elections, SYRIZA reached 32%, so it is important that after four years of opposition there is not a significant decrease in its percentage, regardless of the results. ND.

PASOK and 10%

Finally, the best case scenario for Harilaou Trikoupis is a PASOK movement around 12% combined with a low SYRIZA flight. In that case – and with the upcoming investigations expected to be fruitless – Nikos Androulakis will have a relatively clear path to the second round of voting. PASOK will be able to present itself as a force capable of guaranteeing political stability without Mr. Mitsotakis as prime minister, or as a responsible opposition in the event that N.D. ensure independence.

On the contrary, failure for Harilaou Trikoupis will be expressed in single digit percentages, as this will mean the loss of any momentum that was given to him by the rise of Mr. Androulakis to the leadership. In addition, a negative scenario for PASOK would be from today’s results of the derby between ND. and SYRIZA, since in this case his electoral base will receive bilateral and very strong pressure on the way to new elections.