When a devastating earthquake hit Turkey and Syria February President of Syria Bashar al-Assad saw a unique opportunity. He called for the lifting of international sanctions against his country, some of which were suspended after a few days. Many countries sent humanitarian aid, and officials from these countries began to visit Damascus.

Since then, Assad has seen a marked resurgence after more than a decade of international isolation. Yesterday the Syrian President hugged his leaders Arab League in Jeddah, to whose meeting he was invited. “The return of an unscathed Assad sends a clear message to Arab leaders. Dictators understand that there will be no consequences when they see Assad celebrating,” said Darin Khalifa, a Syria expert at the International Crisis Group Institute.

Analysts argue that the war in Syria created the conditions for what we are seeing today in Ukraine. The suppression of the anti-regime movement in Syria and the regime’s survival was due in part to costly military support from Russia, with the Putin regime never being held accountable for its crimes there, such as the bombings of hospitals in Syria.

The Russians used in Ukraine some of the techniques they had learned on the Syrian fronts, such as besieging urban areas and exploiting food shortages. The war in Syria has reinforced Vladimir Putin’s belief that international rules can be broken at will.

Although Washington has stated that it is not going to restore relations with Damascus, the Biden administration is sending mixed messages to its allies in the Arab world about a thaw in relations with Assad. In February, Human Rights Watch called on all Arab countries in a hurry to normalize their relations with Syria to hold the Damascus regime at least partly responsible for its crimes.

Today, after 11 years of exclusion from the Arab League, many governments in the wider region now openly trade with Damascus. Officials from these governments claim that in this way they can somehow influence Assad on issues such as the flow of drugs through Syria and the fate of millions of Syrian refugees in neighboring countries.

“The current approach of the Arab states towards Damascus suggests that providing incentives to Assad, such as legitimizing his regime through his participation in international organizations, will push him to take initiatives on issues of common interest,” says Ibrahim Hamidi, a journalist with the Syrian newspaper Asharq al- Avsat”. “Syria’s absence from the Arab League meetings was a strategic mistake. His reintegration is necessary to limit the influence of Iran, Russia, Turkey and the United States in Damascus,” said Jibril al-Obeidi, a Libyan columnist for the same newspaper.

Even in gulf states, where relations with Syria have already been restored, many have expressed dismay at the close embrace with the Assad regime. “We hope that they will remember the tragedy of the Syrian people when they shake hands with Assad,” headlined an article in the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Qabas.