What does the rebuttal of opinion polls showing Turkish opposition ahead of Sunday’s elections mean for Greece? It’s a looming advantage in his favor Tayyip Erdogan and the holding of the second round is a positive event, given that, perhaps, it is better for our country to communicate with “the devil who knows” than with the unpredictable Kemal Kilicdaroglu;

Athens is calm about the result and is ready to work with whoever comes out the winner in two weeks. This is a message from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Nikos Dendias, who yesterday expressed hope that the climate created by his visit to the earthquake-affected regions of Turkey will continue and “a window of opportunity will be provided to try to find a solution to our differences.” He pointed out that Erdogan’s rhetoric of late has given rise to this hope. It is recalled that in in his campaign statement to “K” and to our correspondent Manolis Kostidis, the President of Turkey said:

“With Greece, we can leave aside the hostilities and rivalry, this has caused great damage to both countries and should not continue. I wish that the elections in both Greece and Turkey will be the beginning of a new era. From Turkey, we convey our cordial friendly greetings to Greece.” He also looked equally apologetic on Sunday in his respective statement on Sunday “K” and Kılıçdaroğlu: “As for relations with Greece, we want Aegean Sea sea ​​in the zone of peace, as it was during the period when Ismail Cem was the Minister of Foreign Affairs”.

Window for contacts without illusions

Vasilis Nedos

The postponement of Turkey’s presidential election to a second round between incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and six-party opposition coalition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu did not impress in Athens. Despite the general communication noise, it was clear that the initial surge of opposition in recent days had reached a very definite ceiling in the region of 45%-46%. Given the uncertainty that exists in Greece, which will go to the polls on Sunday, and unexpectedly for the second time on the first Sunday in July, the assessment of the presidential election results also passes through this filter. Of course, no one believes that there really is a chance to tip the current balance in favor of Erdogan, given the atmosphere within the opposition coalition after Sunday’s disappointing results.

Same policy

In Athens, as all official channels publicly noted in the previous period, they have no illusions about the prospects for changing Turkey’s strategy, regardless of the outcome. The coming dominance of Erdogan, a political leader who implements the “blue homeland” doctrine and wants to turn his country into a power pillar with increased autonomy from the West, does not change the main scenarios for Greek-Turkish relations in the next period of time. Although, as “K” noted two weeks ago, there is an assessment in important political and diplomatic circles in Athens that the deadline may lead Erdogan to create a legacy that will include economic recovery and dispute resolution with Turkey’s neighbors. .

The coming dominance of Erdogan does not change the main scenarios of Greek-Turkish relations.

Although this position is also publicly described as the will of Ankara, what is missing is that this resolution must be made with specific conditions that are not at all certain that they can be accepted by Athens. In any case, these details will be discussed in due course. This, however, is the general picture, which has led many authorities in Athens to the approach that Greece prefers the re-election of Erdogan rather than the coming to power of a heterogeneous coalition. Of course, in both cases, the main parties were instilled with the nationalist ideology, the dominant trend in all areas of Turkish politics.

Use of immobility

As already known, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis expressed his intention to meet with the President of Turkey as necessary, and also described his realistic expectations. And it is quite obvious that even in case of failure in the Greek elections, this channel will be opened at the highest level.

There is political will in Athens to take advantage of the window of calm that has opened up since February 6 and the devastating earthquakes in southern and southeastern Turkey. In Washington, despite a seeming composure of the kind that was recorded after the announcement that Erdogan would finally be president of Turkey for another five years, there is also a will and a plan to keep the window of opportunity for talks between Athens and Ankara untapped, even if action must be taken during the summer. Immediately, that is, after the completion of the July elections in Greece, unless, of course, something like this needs to be done.

Priority – to restore the channel of communication with Erdogan

Konstantinos Fili*

Although individuals are not necessarily decisive in the formation and implementation of state policy, in the case of Turkey, in the absence of institutions and due to the over-concentration of powers in the White House, Erdogan has great influence in foreign policy. According to Greek-Turkish, what needs to be done first is to restore a direct channel of communication with Erdogan. Build trust between the Greek Prime Minister and the Turkish President. There will be political momentum after the Greek elections are over, as both leaderships will have clear political time ahead of them to make bold decisions and, being at the start of their term, will be able to absorb any shocks.

However, if there is no significant development for the better, in a maximum of a year and a half, it is possible that we will return to the intensity of the previous period of time, before the earthquake. The Turkish colleague characteristically told me that Erdogan would give an opportunity to conduct a dialogue with Greece, as well as with the rest of the countries in the region, with Cyprus, of course, under the sign of a question. But in a minute he may well remember his bad self. Nevertheless, the Turkish president feels – after his upcoming re-election – powerful, but in practice he will be more fragile, as well as his economy. To this end, as it is forced to turn to the West to attract foreign direct investment and in general funds that support economic recovery, Greece can assist in these efforts towards the EU and, in particular, to the renewal of the Customs Union. However, such a contribution will be subject to conditions regarding the Greek-Turkish dialogue. In any case, we must take the lead in the movements and not expect Westerners or Turks to set the tone, which without our active participation will be increasingly transactional. We want and are looking for a framework of (generally accepted) rules in both bilateral and Euro-Turkish relations.

Two final remarks: firstly, regarding the rise of extreme nationalist formations, the percentage of which in the aggregate reaches 25%, which is not insignificant, considering that many more nationalists are “hiding” in larger parties such as the AKP and the CHP. . And secondly, about Erdogan’s backstory. The latter will have a deadline of 2028, which will leave an indelible mark on young Turkey.

After the completion of the elections in Greece, there will be political momentum to build confidence.

He is already talking about his country’s next century, which will begin this year, and the question is on what basis he will determine his posthumous glory. This is a reformer of the Turkish economy and a reformer, if not the Constitution (albeit in the direction of the most authoritarian), or an inter-regional ruler with world-power tendencies (albeit out of reality). Erdogan believes that the world system is being reshuffled, and this is his chance to make Turkey a world power. In his opinion, this adventure goes through sovereignty, at least in the near abroad, so Greece and Cyprus are obstacles. Let’s hope, without placing great hopes, that he realizes in time that the strengthening of Turkey’s role, at least in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean, depends on Ankara’s cooperative attitude and general partnership in the region, and not on the unfolding revisionist program, which leads to eternal rivalry that isolates instead of uniting.

* Mr. Konstantinos Filis is Director of the Institute of International Affairs, Professor at the American College of Greece and International Affairs Analyst for ANT1.