Türkiye, as expected, comes out of the parliamentary and presidential elections divided. But if the numbers we have are confirmed, Erdogan will show his political caliber and resilience, and Kılıçdaroğlu his inability to inspire his compatriots.

However, since the announcement of the first results, an attempt was made on both sides to cultivate the image of dominance, resulting in increased confusion among the electorate and foreign observers.

In the battle of impressions, it seems, even the presidential plane, which flew to Ankara at noon on Sunday, but without Erdogan, was included. Thus, although it gave the impression that he was in Ankara, he was in Constantinople and finally went to Ankara after a few hours.

Even in the early hours of the morning when this text was being written, according to some circles of the opposition, the line had not yet been clarified, and the President of Turkey claimed that it had not been finally decided whether we would be taken to the second round, since almost all the data coincided. And this is because he believed that when combining the votes of foreigners, this would exceed 50%, while in the case of Kılıçdaroğlu there was – in truth, by few – the expectation that when combining the blocked votes, that is, those that were not counted due to objections and amount to 783 ballot boxes in Istanbul and 300 in Ankara, would dramatically change the results.

In essence, the opposition accuses the government of creating a protest industry to prematurely present the image of Erdogan’s victory, thereby sealing the outcome, while Justice and Development Party spokesman Omer Celik accused Imamoglu of trying to manipulate compatriots. with his statements about a comfortable victory for Kılıçdaroğlu.

Be that as it may, it seems that both camps have prepared… an early challenge of the result in order to overshadow any result they do not want, thus putting pressure on the Supreme Electoral Council as well. The consequence of this is that we do not know when the final results will be announced, whether new objections will arise, whether a recount will be requested and, accordingly, whether they will be accepted.

Because otherwise, according to the scenario, there will most likely be demonstrations on the streets and, possibly, clashes, which could have been avoided if we had gone to the second round. And all because the second round can temporarily act as a valve to relieve tension, and the warring parties can set up a meeting on May 28.

Of course, with doubts on both sides about the intentions and methods used by each side, it is understandable that in the next two weeks we may see scenes (hard rock) in the neighboring country.

If the results of the parliamentary elections are confirmed, which will certainly affect the second round of the presidential elections, then the ruling coalition, mainly thanks to Erdogan’s party, will achieve a very important and, according to some, unexpected victory. .

With a 10% margin for the Republican Party, it’s a narrow victory, winning 51 constituencies to 30. This gives Erdogan a big boost ahead of the runoff as he will cite the need for stability, especially during the economic crisis. a crisis, not a French-style cohabitation with a parliament that will not be close to the president (because there is no such political culture in Turkey).

Of course, by controlling the state apparatus, he will not only mobilize more people, but will also use intimidation methods and additional benefits/promises if necessary to ensure his re-election.

Here I note that in such regimes, elections are used as a fig leaf for the manifestation of rudimentary democratic reflexes, when in reality they are not held on equal terms, nor is the period preceding them a model of equality and equality, with imprisonment and persecution of many opposition voices.

And, of course, during the election campaign, control of the media is in the hands of the leader, in this case Erdogan.

In addition, in the opposition, disappointment with the results of the parliamentary elections and the outright defeat of Kılıçdaroglu is unlikely to be hushed up until May 28, but it is even more doubtful that it will retain its unity in the event of the loss of the presidency.

Axener has reportedly already reacted strongly to the impending loss of the presidency. In the end, the glue for the alliance’s cooperation with different views and different ideologies was the overthrow of Erdogan, and if this is not finally achieved, grumbling and introversion will follow, a development that Erdogan can use to join parties or even deputies and further increase his parliamentary majority and thus put an end to the opposition coalition. The only (small) hope that the opposition front will remain intact is the expectation of a change in the ratios through the upcoming (in nine months) self-government elections.

In short, assuming the results are correct, Erdogan, with 50% (by a margin of 2+ million votes), enters the second round by a massive margin in Turkey, deeply divided and paralyzed for at least the next 15 days.

Only if the voters of Ogan and Ins support Kilicdaroglu en masse will the latter have a serious chance of being overthrown. Continued worries, however, do not bode well for the already shaky Turkish economy, while the markets do not seem to have taken into account the Kılıçdaroğlu victory and must now make the necessary adjustments/adjustments to the unorthodox Erdoganomics. Aside from the (now) shockingly unexpected…

Mr. Konstantinos Filis is Director of the Institute of International Affairs, Professor at the American College in Greece, and International Affairs Analyst at Ant1.